2025-05-20-Jefferies-斗鱼（DOYU）_转型进行中_10页_285kb

May 21, 2025

DouYu International Holdings (DOYU) - Equity Research Summary

• 1Q25 Performance:

  • Revenue Below Expectations: Missed estimates due to softer-than-expected live streaming segment (down 8.9% YoY to RMB 947.1 billion, 7.5% below estimate).
  • Segments: Live streaming revenue saw sharp decline (29.5% YoY to RMB 564.5 million, vs estimate RMB 639m). Adjacent revenue (advertising, innovative, etc.) increased significantly (60.2% YoY to RMB 382.6m, largely inline with estimate).
  • Earnings: Net losses narrower than expected primarily due to lower non-operating expenses, despite higher operating costs partially explained by restructuring efforts.
  • User Metrics: Mobile MAU decreased 8.7% YoY to 41.4m; paying users decreased 14.7% YoY in core segment.
  • Margins: Gross margin improved slightly to 12% (+1.5pp YoY), operating and non-GAAP net losses reduced compared to prior estimates.

• 2025 Outlook:

  • Ratings: Maintain Hold rating.
  • Target Price Adjustment: Reduced PT from US$9.00 to US$7.50 (+9% upside).
  • Revenues: Total revenue expected to decline 10% YoY. Live streaming segment expected further decline (26% YoY to RMB 2.3 billion), while adjacent revenue growth projected at 32% YoY (to RMB 1.6 billion).
  • Margins: Gross margin expected around 13%.

• Valuation & Risks:

  • Hold Rating (15% to -10% total return expected). PT based on DCF model.
  • Upside risks: Strong execution, faster-than-expected revenue from new initiatives.
  • Downside risks: Higher than expected content costs (intense competition from popular broadcasters, "iron source"); Stringent regulations in game broadcasting; New capital-intensive entrants in the potentially promising overseas market.

• Investment Thesis: Focuses on DouYu's strong market position in Chinese game broadcasting, viral effects, and monetization avenues across gaming and non-game segments (gaming driving revenue growth historically). Support from strategic investor Tencent.

• Financial Highlights (Selected):

  • Revenues (MM): 2024A: ~4,271; 2025E: ~3,861 (down ~9.6%).
  • Non-GAAP Net Income (incl. Interest): 2024A: N/A; 2025E: N/A (expected break-even or minimal losses, aided by interest income).
  • Market Cap (MM RMB): ~221.
  • Price Target (USD): ~$7.50.