20151019-中国银河国际证券-China_Cement_Weekly_12页_1mb

报告摘要

China Cement Sector Summary

Core Content

The document provides an analysis of the Chinese cement sector, focusing on recent price movements, company dynamics, and market valuations. It also includes a breakdown of clinker capacity by region and market share data for major cement companies.

Cement Price Trends

National Cement Price: The average cement price nationwide increased by 0.45% week-on-week (WoW) to RMB257.08/tonne.
Regional Price Recovery: Cement prices continued to recover in eastern and south central China, with specific increases in Jiangxi, Hunan, Sichuan, and Guangxi ranging from RMB10 to RMB30/tonne.
Demand Concerns: Despite the price recovery, demand remains weak, and it is unclear whether downstream customers will accept the price hike.
Inventory Levels: The average inventory level across the nation climbed to 74.91% last week, indicating potential overstocking or reduced demand.

Company Dynamics

Shanshui Cement: The founder, Zhang Caikui, stepped down from the board, and his son, Zhang Bin, retained the role of chairman.
Board Changes: Three directors, including Zhang Caikui, were removed from the board, with Chang Zhangli from CNBM (3323.HK) being promoted to executive director.
Tianrui Group: The parent company of Tianrui Cement (1252.HK) has requested another extraordinary general meeting (EGM) to appoint its representatives to the board, indicating ongoing board control disputes.
Shanshui Cement's Status: The company is still evaluating the legitimacy of Tianrui Group's request, and the outcome of the power struggle remains uncertain.

Stock Performance

Cement Stocks: On average, cement stocks rose by 0.79% last week.
Best Performer: BBMG (2009.HK) was the top performer, increasing by 4.75% to HK$6.17/share.
Weakest Performer: CR Cement (1313.HK) was the weakest, dropping by 3.77%.
Rating Summary:
- BBMG, Anhui Conch, and CNBM were rated BUY.
- Shanshui Cement was rated SELL.

Valuation Table Highlights

Company	Ticker	Rating	Price (HK$)	Market Cap (US$m)	PER(x) 2014	PER(x) 2015E	PER(x) 2016E	EV/EBITDA(x) 2014	EV/EBITDA(x) 2015E	EV/EBITDA(x) 2016E	Net Debt/Equity (%)
Anhui Conch	914 HK Equity	BUY	25.15	15,669	9.6	13.5	12.8	6.2	7.4	6.7	6
ONBM	3323 HK Equity	BUY	5.15	3,565	4.0	9.6	5.5	7.5	9.5	8.7	239
BBMG	2009 HK Equity	BUY	6.17	5,742	12.0	12.1	8.4	9.1	9.1	7.2	65
CR Cement	1313 HK Equity	BUY	3.57	2,990	5.4	9.4	9.5	5.0	7.8	6.7	55
Shanshui Cement	691 HK Equity	SELL	6.29	2,725	45.9	42.2	34.7	10.6	10.3	9.4	134

Average Valuation Metrics

Simple Average:
- PER(x): 15.4, 17.4, 14.2
- EV/EBITDA(x): 7.7, 8.8, 7.7
Weighted Average:
- PER(x): 12.2, 14.9, 12.7
- EV/EBITDA(x): 7.2, 8.3, 7.3
- Net Debt/Equity: 100

Peer Comparison

Company	Market Cap (HK$)	PER(x) 2014	PER(x) 2015E	PER(x) 2016E	PBR(x) 2014	PBR(x) 2015E	PBR(x) 2016E	EV/EBITDA(x) 2014	EV/EBITDA(x) 2015E	EV/EBITDA(x) 2016E
Anhui Conch	25.15	9.6	13.5	12.8	1.67	1.53	1.41	6.2	7.4	6.7
CNBM	5.15	4.0	9.6	5.5	0.57	0.53	0.49	7.5	9.5	8.7
BBMG	6.17	12.0	12.1	8.4	0.75	0.74	0.70	9.1	9.1	7.2
CR Cement	3.57	5.4	9.4	9.5	0.83	0.79	0.74	5.0	7.8	6.7
Shanshui Cement	6.29	45.9	42.2	34.7	1.58	1.52	1.47	10.6	10.3	9.4
TCC International	1.55	5.2	15.0	9.5	0.43	0.36	0.34	4.1	9.6	-
China National Materials	1.98	10.0	9.8	9.4	0.39	0.41	0.38	6.4	7.6	-
Asia Cement	2.5	7.7	52.5	12.8	0.33	0.34	0.33	4.4	10.1	-
West China Cement	1.12	7.7	27.8	10.3	0.81	0.73	0.72	6.4	5.0	-
Tianrui Cement	2.08	8.5	n.a.	n.a.	0.57	n.a.	n.a.	7.0	n.a.	-

Market Share and Clinker Capacity

Clinker Capacity Breakdown by Region (2014):
- East China: Anhui Conch (46.6%), CNBM (42.4%), CR Cement (11.9%), Shanshui (53.7%)
- South Central China: Guangdong (25.7%), Guangxi (14.4%), Hunan (70.9%), etc.
- North China: CNBM (7.0%), CR Cement (2.0%), BBMG (6.3%), etc.
- Northeast China: CNBM (22.7%), BBMG (9.3%), etc.
- Southwest China: Asia Cement (9.7%), CNBM (17.1%), etc.
- Northwest China: ONBM (7.8%), etc.
Grand Total Clinker Capacity: 100%

Key Observations

Shanshui Cement is in the midst of a board power struggle with Tianrui Group, and the outcome is still unclear.
BBMG has shown strong performance, while CR Cement has been the weakest among the target stocks.
Cement prices have rebounded in some regions, but demand remains weak.
Coal prices have continued their downward trend, which may have an impact on production costs and profitability.
Market sentiment is moderately positive, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.71%.

Conclusion

The Chinese cement sector is experiencing price recovery in certain regions, but demand remains weak, and the sustainability of this price rebound is uncertain. Shanshui Cement is involved in a board power struggle, with CNBM gaining more influence. The stock performance of cement companies varies, with BBMG outperforming and CR Cement underperforming. Valuation metrics suggest that Shanshui Cement is currently overvalued, while BBMG and CNBM are relatively attractive. Market share and clinker capacity data highlight the dominant positions of major players like Anhui Conch and CNBM in key regions.