20171213-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_4页_420kb

报告摘要

Market	1D (%)	1M (%)	YTD (%)	17E (%)	18E (%)	17E (P/E)	18E (P/E)
HSI	-0.6	-1.3	30.9	24.5	9.7	12.9	11.7
HSCEI	-1.0	-3.2	20.4	11.9	9.9	8.4	7.7
MXCN	-1.4	-2.9	47.6	27.9	15.2	15.0	13.0
SHSZ300	-1.3	-2.7	21.3	17.5	14.8	15.5	13.5
SHCOMP	-1.2	-4.8	5.7	24.4	13.2	14.5	12.8
SZCOMP	-1.0	-7.0	-3.5	43.9	26.5	25.4	20.1
INDU	0.5	4.5	24.0	15.7	9.5	19.5	17.8
SPX	0.2	3.1	19.0	23.0	10.0	19.9	18.1
CCMP	-0.2	1.5	27.5	55.3	9.7	24.3	22.1
UKX	0.6	1.1	5.0	140.7	6.5	15.2	14.3
NKY	0.0	2.2	19.7	39.6	12.4	19.3	17.1

HK Ticker	Company	Local (HK$)	Daily (%)	ADR (US$)	Daily (%)
700	TENCENT	393.2	-3.01	50.5	-3.15
1398	ICBC	6.0	0.67	9.0	-0.80
939	CCB	6.6	-0.75	17.1	-0.96
857	PETROCHINA	5.2	1.17	67.0	0.15
5	HSBC	78.4	0.06	50.6	0.70
941	CHINA MOBILE	76.4	0.66	48.9	0.06
2318	PING AN	78.7	-3.32	20.2	-3.49
3988	BANK OF CHINA	3.7	-1.06	11.9	-1.13
2628	CHINA LIFE	24.7	-0.60	7.2	-0.97
386	SINOPEC	5.5	0.18	70.8	-0.38

Policy Impact: The CPC and state council issued rules promoting the use of domestically produced and new energy vehicles (NEVs), aligning with existing policies such as fuel consumption and credit score systems.
NEV Growth: NEV production and sales in November surged by 70.1% YoY and 32.8% MoM, respectively, to 122k and 119k units, indicating strong demand.
Lithium Market: Tight supply-demand dynamics are expected to persist until end-2018 due to delayed supply increases and strong downstream demand. Lithium carbonate prices rose 33.8% YTD.
Cobalt Market: Supply constraints and strong demand for lithium battery raw materials are expected to keep cobalt prices rising.
Recommendations: Watch Tianqi Lithium (002466 CH) and Ganfeng Lithium (002460 CH).
Key Risks: Weak NEV policy implementation, disappointing production/sales, and price volatility.

M2 Growth: M2 increased by 9.1% YoY in November, up 0.3% MoM, while M1 rose 12.7% YoY and 0.3% MoM.
Loan Growth: New Rmb loans reached a record high of Rmb1.12trn, driven mainly by corporate loans, with a MoM increase of Rmb326bn.
Deposit Growth: New Rmb deposits increased by Rmb1.57trn, a MoM rise of Rmb510bn.
Loan Structure: Corporate loans accounted for the majority of new loans, with a significant increase in short-term household loans and stable mortgage lending.
Social Financing: Total social financing reached Rmb1.6trn, up Rmb561.3bn MoM, indicating stronger support for the real economy.
Investment Outlook: NIM is expected to improve steadily in 2018 due to asset re-pricing and better liability management. Asset quality is likely to improve with economic recovery.
Recommendations: Maintain a Positive rating on the Chinese banking sector. Recommend banks with strong fundamentals, such as China Merchants Bank (600036 CH/3968 HK), Bank of Ningbo (002142 CH), ICBC (601398 CH/1398 HK), and ABC (601288 CH/1288 HK).

Buy: Expected to outperform the benchmark by more than 15%
Accumulate: Expected to outperform the benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15%
Hold: Expected relative performance ranges between -5% and 5%
Underperform: Expected to underperform the benchmark by more than 5%
Sector Ratings:
- Positive: Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%
- Neutral: Expected relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
- Cautious: Expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.
The information and opinions in this report are subject to change without notice.
GF Securities (Hong Kong) accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of the report.
Investments involve risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results.

展开完整摘要