2025-06-15-Jefferies-政策变化_聚焦医疗补助_税收_最惠国待遇_覆盖范围；医院-_医疗技术+_-_8页_226kb

The report focuses on policy changes under President Trump's Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) and their implications for the US medical supplies and devices sector, particularly hospitals and medical technology. Key findings include:

• Medicaid Cuts: Expected to negatively impact hospital margins, with estimated revenue reduction of ~3% from Medicaid, leading to a ~1% margin decline for average hospitals. Senate version may soften these cuts to ~$500–$600B, reducing overall hospital financial pressure.

• Corporate Tax Reforms: Cuts are positive for MedTech, pharmaceuticals, and hospitals, driven by immediate deductibility for domestic capital investments and R&D, boosting business investments and innovation.

• Medicare and MFN: Medicare cuts are unlikely, while MFN (drug pricing) is uncertain and could take various forms, with potential tariffs by June 2025; MedTech may receive exemptions.

• BBB Legislation: The bill is expected to pass before the August recess, with Senate version more fiscally expansive than House version, though Medicaid provisions may be moderated.

• Market Risks: Overall sector faces challenges from increased uncompensated care costs and tariffs, but benefits from tax incentives. Boston Scientific Corp is targeted at $122, with risks including revenue pressure from competition and regulatory factors.

In essence, the report highlights a mixed impact, with tax reforms offering opportunities for MedTech but policy uncertainties like Medicaid cuts and tariffs posing risks.