2022-09-30-IRENA-Indonesia_Energy_Transition_Outlook_152页_17mb

Indonesia Energy Transition Outlook Summary

Core Content

The Indonesia Energy Transition Outlook is a comprehensive report published by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in 2022. It outlines a long-term vision for Indonesia's energy system transition, focusing on renewable energy, decarbonisation, and sustainable development.

Indonesia, the largest country in ASEAN by area, population, and GDP, is expected to see its population rise to 335 million and its GDP more than triple by 2050. Consequently, energy demand is projected to more than triple, reaching over 23 EJ. The current energy mix is dominated by fossil fuels, accounting for around 86% of primary energy supply between 2009 and 2020. However, the country has abundant renewable resources, including solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, and bioenergy, with a total potential of over 3000 GW.

IRENA highlights that renewable energy can provide a cost-effective, sustainable solution to meet future energy needs and reduce emissions. The report explores multiple decarbonisation pathways, including a renewables and nuclear-enabled pathway, a renewables and CCS-enabled pathway, and a 100% renewable pathway, all aiming to achieve a net-zero emissions target by 2060 or earlier.

The 1.5-S (1.5 Degree Scenario) is presented as the most cost-effective option, with renewable energy expected to make up two-thirds of the energy mix by 2050. This scenario also shows significant cost savings compared to the Planned Energy Scenario (PES), with cumulative savings estimated at USD 0.4–0.6 trillion by 2050.

Main Points

1. Energy Demand and Mix

• Indonesia's energy demand is projected to more than triple by 2050.
• The energy mix is currently dominated by fossil fuels, but the report emphasizes the need for a transition to renewable energy.
• Renewable energy currently accounts for 12% of installed electricity generation capacity, with solar and hydro being the primary contributors.

2. Renewable Energy Potential

• Indonesia has over 3000 GW of renewable energy potential, including solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, and bioenergy.
• The country has a significant geothermal and hydropower potential, which are key to its renewable energy strategy.

3. Decarbonisation Pathways

• Three main decarbonisation pathways are explored:
  • Renewables and nuclear-enabled
  • Renewables and CCS-enabled
  • 100% renewable
• All scenarios emphasize a high share of renewables in the energy mix, with 85% or more in generation.
• The 1.5-S scenario is the most cost-effective, with a renewable share of 798–840 GW by 2050.

4. Key Technologies

• Clean hydrogen and batteries are highlighted as critical for energy transition.
• Grid integration, energy storage, and demand response are essential for managing variable renewable energy (VRE).
• Bioenergy plays a key role in both the energy and transport sectors.

5. Investment Needs

• Short-term investment (up to 2030) is estimated at around USD 332 billion for renewable energy and related technologies.
• Long-term investment (up to 2050) is expected to be USD 2420 billion, which is double the investment required under the PES.
• Significant investments are needed in transmission, distribution, and storage infrastructure to support the expansion of renewable energy.

6. Policy and Institutional Framework

• The report is developed in collaboration with the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), PT PLN, and various regional and national institutions.
• A strong legal and regulatory framework is required to support the growth of renewable energy.
• The National Energy Council (DEN) and ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) play key roles in shaping the energy transition strategy.

7. Challenges and Recommendations

• Energy system planning must be improved to ensure the integration of renewable energy.
• Regulatory and legal frameworks need to be updated to support the transition.
• Technology and infrastructure development is crucial, especially for renewable energy financing and grid expansion.
• Energy efficiency and demand-side management are important to reduce the overall energy system costs.

Key Information

• IRENA's role: IRENA worked closely with Indonesian stakeholders and regional partners to develop this report.
• 1.5-S Scenario: This scenario represents the most cost-effective and sustainable path for Indonesia, with a renewable share of 798–840 GW by 2050.
• CO₂ Emissions: Under the PES, emissions are expected to increase by at least 80% by 2050. However, in the 1.5-S scenario, emissions peak by 2030 and then decline to one-third of current levels.
• Energy Security and Affordability: The report emphasizes the importance of local renewable resources for achieving energy security and reducing costs.
• Climate Goals: Indonesia has committed to reducing GHG emissions by 29–41% by 2030 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2060.
• CO₂ Removal Measures: In addition to reducing emissions, Indonesia will need to implement CO₂ removal measures and address emissions outside the energy sector, particularly from land use, land use change, and forestry.

Conclusion

The Indonesia Energy Transition Outlook provides a roadmap for the country to transition to a cleaner, more sustainable energy system. It highlights the need for policy reform, technological innovation, and significant investment in renewable energy and related infrastructure. The 1.5-S scenario is presented as the most viable path to achieve net-zero emissions, energy security, and economic growth. IRENA is committed to supporting Indonesia in this transition and helping it meet its long-term energy and climate goals.