2025-06-05-Jefferies-Tandem（TND）_心境帝国_2型糖尿病加速发展；保守指引；众多增长机会_8页_115kb

Equity Research Summary: Tandem Diabetes Care Inc (TNDM)

• Rating and Price: Buy recommendation with a price target of $55.00, implying a +173% potential upside from the current price of $20.18. The 52-week high and low are $53.64 and $15.75, respectively.

• Q1 Performance and Guidance: Despite a Q1 beat driven by conservatism and macro uncertainty, the company maintained its FY2025 sales guidance (revenue range of $977MM to $1.007B, +10-11% y/y) due to early fiscal year timing. Fundamentals remain strong, with solid retention and growth in MDI conversions.

• Business Expansion: Key growth driver is the expansion into Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) market, which could push product penetration from ~5% to 25%+ over time. The company is piloting this with proper training for rollout.

• Product Launches and Growth Trends: Launching Libre3 with T-Slim in Q2 (US) and Q3 (OUS), with upcoming Android integration pending 510k clearance. Mobi has strong momentum, particularly in pediatrics, contributing to growth in MDI conversions. Pharmacy expansion now covers 30% of US lives, expected to accelerate reaching targets.

• Long-Term Goals: Aiming for 65% gross margin (GM) long-term, with a target of 60% by 2026, driven by Mobi, pharmacy growth, direct operations in Europe (starting 2026), and price/mix benefits. Direct operations in Europe aim to improve growth control and eliminate distributor margins.

• Valuation and Risks: The price target is based on 3x'26 sales and assumes moderate top-line growth. Risks include regulatory delays, competition, reimbursement challenges, reimbursement headwinds, macro factors, and distributor disruptions. The company highlights that MDT's Diabetes spin is unlikely to impact competition.

• Market Position and Analyst Views: Analysts emphasize positive treatment advancements with Control-IQ+ study updates at ADA, showing strong outcomes in ease of use and flexibility with GLP-1s. Market remains confident despite uncertainties.