2025-05-29-Jefferies-大塚控股（4578）_在ASCO和ERA报告前提高预期并重申买入_12页_425kb

Summary of Otsuka Holdings Equity Research Report

• Rating and Price Target: Jefferies reiterates a Buy rating and increases the price target to ¥9,500, representing a +38% upside from the prior day's close. This follows raising estimates for key drug candidates due to positive data.

• Key Drug Updates:

  • Zipalertinib ( lung cancer candidate):
    • Raising sales and core operating profit estimates by an average of 2% and 7% for CY27-33.
    • PoS-adjusted peak sales estimate updated to ~$1bn, with potential for 2-3x higher sales due to efficacy.
    • Launch projected for 2026 (previously 2028) after 2H 2025 NDA submission.
    • Data presentation at ASO 2025 (June 1).
  • Sibeprenlimab (IgAN candidate):
    • Raising estimates by 8% sales and 7% profit for CY27-33 and increasing PoS to 90%.
    • PoS-adjusted sales target raised from ~$1.8bn to $1.9bn.
    • FDA accepted accelerated approval request; PDUFA date Nov 28, 2025.
    • Phase 3 VISIONARY trial data to be presented at ERA 2025 (June 6).
  • Rexulti: Upcoming PTSD Adcom meeting expected in June.

• Financials and Valuation:

  • Otsuka trades at FY12/26E EV/EBITDA of 7.5x, significantly below 10-year average of 10x.
  • Price target based on 10x multiple, giving potential upside.
  • Estimated FY12/26E EBITDA of ~402bn yen, with improved profit outlook from royalty income and key product growth.

• Risks:

  • Key risks include delays in growth drivers like Rexulti, Japanese drug price cuts, and global affordability issues.
  • R&D reliance on consistent new product launches.

• Catalysts and Events:

  • ASO 2025: Zipalertinib Phase 2b data.
  • ERA 2025: Sibeprenlimab Phase 3 data.
  • FDA Adcom: Rexulti PTSD indication expected June.
  • Submissions: Zipalertinib NDA by 2H 2025; Sibeprenlimab full FDA review by 2026.

• Business Model: Otsuka's strength lies in its innovation track record, supported by royalty income from out-licensed programs (e.g., to Novartis) and in-house products. Lower valuations may reflect conglomerate discounts.

Analyst Certifications

• Stephen Barker and Miyabi Yamakita certify that views reflect their personal opinions and that compensation is not tied to recommendations.