2025-06-17-Jefferies-宝丽奥蜜思控股（4927）_奥蜜思的新型抗皱产品_7页_102kb

Flash Note and Product Update

• Orbis Holdings relaunched the Wrinkle Serum (originally from 2019) on August 20, 2025. Price remains ¥4,950 per 30g.
• Sales for FY24 were ¥2.17 billion, with expectations for FY25 to reach ¥2.3 billion (YoY increase of ¥100-200 million), representing a negligible contribution to Pola Orbis Holdings' total sales of ¥48.2 billion (28% sliver), despite historical +7% growth from prior relaunch.
• Product effective for wrinkle improvement and skin whitening; contains niacinamide and offers a speed effect, with clinical images shared after two weeks. Positioned as affordable, appeals to all skin areas, but no cannibalization expected with Pola Wrinkle Shot, which decreased 14% in FY24.

Company Context

• Pola Orbis Holdings is a major Japanese cosmetics maker with brands including high-end Pola, mid-priced Orbis, and store-based Three. Expands overseas via acquisitions (e.g., Jurlique), but profitability lags due to drugstore channel reliance compared to other markets.

Valuation and Risks

• Price target: ¥1,050 (UNDERPERFORM rating), based on EV/EBITDA multiple and ROE-P/B correlation.
• Risks include dependence on Japan's cosmetics market, competition, margin constraints, and innovations like Pola Wrinkle Shot from 2017 not being replicated. Sales growth in FY25 is modest for Orbis but rivalry with Pola BA could drive other segments.

Analyst Rating and Summary

• Rating: UNDERPERFORM, implying expected total returns (minus 10% or less over 12 months), driven by limited impact from this minor product update.