2008年-世界发展银行全球_Distortions_to_Agricultural_Incentives_in_Europes_Transition_Economies_402页_3mb

Summary of "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Europe's Transition Economies"

Core Content

This document is a comprehensive analysis of agricultural incentives and distortions in the World Bank-defined region of Europe and Central Asia, focusing on the evolution of trade and price policies in transition economies. It examines the impact of these policies on agricultural competitiveness and trade, with a particular emphasis on the countries that joined the European Union (EU) in 2004 and 2007 (the EU-10), as well as Turkey and seven countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS-7). The study aims to assess the changing landscape of agricultural protection and taxation, improve understanding of the political economy of these distortions, and explore the prospects for further reductions.

Main Purpose

The primary objective of the study is to evaluate the extent and evolution of distortions to agricultural incentives in the region, including:

• Analyzing agricultural protection and taxation patterns over the past decade.
• Assessing the current and recent policy influences on incentives within and across sectors.
• Examining the impact of structural changes on agricultural performance.
• Improving understanding of the political economy of agricultural distortions.
• Exploring the implications of further reductions in distortions for agricultural competitiveness and trade.

Key Information

Overview of the Region

• The region includes 18 countries, representing 89% of the region's agricultural value added, 91% of the population, and 95% of total GDP.
• The region consists of two main subgroups: Central and Eastern Europe (EU-10 + Turkey) and the former Soviet Union (CIS-7).
• The EU-10 countries (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, the Slovak Republic, and Slovenia) have undergone significant economic and policy reforms since joining the EU.
• The CIS-7 countries (Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Russian Federation, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan) have also experienced substantial changes in their agricultural policies.

Economic and Trade Indicators

• The region's agricultural GDP and total GDP have varied significantly, with Central and Eastern Europe generally having higher GDP per capita and more developed economies compared to the CIS-7.
• Turkey has a relatively high share of agricultural trade specialization and is a key player in the region.
• CIS-7 countries have a higher share of agricultural land per capita and lower GDP per capita compared to the EU-10 and Turkey.

Policy Reforms and Distortions

• The study highlights the need for reducing anti-export bias in trade policies, especially for countries exporting primary products.
• Distortions in agricultural incentives have decreased in several countries but are increasing again in others.
• NRA (Nominal Rate of Assistance) and RRA (Relative Rate of Assistance) are key indicators used to measure the extent of these distortions.
• CTE (Consumer Tax Equivalent) and TBI (Trade Bias Index) are also used to assess the impact of trade and price policies on agricultural incentives.

Methodology

• The study uses time series data to analyze the evolution of distortions.
• Country case studies are included, with detailed data on agricultural output, trade, and policy changes.
• An appendix provides information on the methodology used to measure the NRA, CTE, and RRA.

Political Economy Considerations

• The study emphasizes the importance of understanding the political and economic forces behind policy changes.
• It also explores the feasibility of reforms and the implications for agricultural competitiveness.

Structure

Part I: Introduction

• Provides an overview of the study and its objectives.
• Reviews the economic growth and structural changes in the region's transition economies over the past 15 years.
• Highlights the need for policy reforms and the importance of understanding the political economy of agricultural distortions.

Part II: Eastern Europe

• Focuses on the EU-10 countries.
• Includes case studies on Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, the Slovak Republic, and Slovenia.
• Analyzes changes in agricultural output, trade, and policy regimes.

Part III: Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)

• Focuses on Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Russian Federation, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.
• Includes case studies on these countries, with an emphasis on their agricultural policies and distortions.

Key Findings

• Agricultural distortions have been reduced in several countries, but re-emerging in others.
• The EU-10 countries have made more progress in reducing distortions compared to the CIS-7 countries.
• Turkey has a unique position in the region, with its own set of agricultural policies and distortions.
• The political economy of agricultural reforms is complex, with varying levels of support and resistance across the region.
• Trade policies and price interventions have had a significant impact on agricultural incentives and competitiveness.

Conclusion

This study provides a detailed analysis of the evolution of agricultural incentives and distortions in Europe's transition economies, emphasizing the importance of policy reforms and the need for a better understanding of the political economy of these changes. It serves as a valuable resource for policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders interested in the future of agricultural competitiveness and trade in the region.