2025-06-10-Jefferies-MonotaRO_Co_Ltd.（3064）_五月月报-防暑相关商品的强劲销售_7页_179kb

MonotaRO Co Ltd. (3064 JP) - Jefferies Equity Research Summary

Rating: Underperform
Price Target: ¥2,670 (down from ¥2,884, target reduced by 7%)

Key Analysis Points:

1. Performance in May 2025:

   • Reported sales: ¥24.96bn (+11.9% YoY; Adjusted sales +17.5% YoY).
   • Adjusted sales growth (+17.5% YoY) exceeded internal estimates and FY25 H1 guidance (14.5% YoY).
   • Key drivers:
     • Heatstroke prevention goods: Sales surge attributed to demand for summer-related products.
     • New clients: Acquired 97,800 new accounts (+0.4% YoY; -6.7% MoM), exceeding internal targets.
     • High-margin product lines: Steady unit price (¥10,436) and repeat rates (2.55x).

2. Business Segments:

   • Small & Medium Enterprises (SME): Adjusted sales growth held steady (+10-12% YoY).
   • Large Corporates: Adjusted sales growth of +28-29% YoY, inline with internal estimates.

3. Valuation & Risks:

   • Valuation: PT based on FY26E EPS, but valuation elevated (traded at 30-50x P/E).
   • Risks:
     • Macroeconomic: Interest rate hikes, yen appreciation.
     • Competition: Less intense threat from Amazon compared to peers.
     • Valuation Risk: Elevated P/E may not sustain upside if growth decelerates.

4. Analyst Certification:

   • Hiroko Sato & Ken Oiwa (CFA) certify views are independent and not influenced by compensation.

Key Charts & Data:

• Sales Trends: Adjusted YoY growth consistently above 14% in SME and Large Corporates segments.
• Unit Price & Repeat Rates: Stable at ¥10,436 and 2.55x, respectively, reflecting strong customer retention.
• Historical PT: From ¥1,265 to ¥2,670, reflecting volatile optimism over the past year.

Investment Recommendation:

• Underperform: Expected total return of -10% or less over 12 months, citing valuation concerns and macro risks.

Disclaimer: Report includes extensive disclosures on conflicts of interest and regulatory compliance.