2024-08-26-WTW-2024年全球固定收益计划会计假设调查（英）_8页_1mb

Executive Summary

The 2024 Global Survey of Accounting Assumptions for Defined Benefit Plans, conducted by WTW, is the 35th annual report analyzing economic assumptions used by major corporations for their defined benefit (DB) pension plans worldwide. It focuses on key accounting standards, such as ASC 715 and IAS 19, and examines trends in discount rates, inflation, expected rates of return on plan assets, mortality assumptions, and the projected benefit security ratio.

This survey, based on data from over 1,100 companies across 47 countries, highlights that corporate bond yields decreased in many regions in 2023, with some Eurozone countries seeing yield cuts exceeding 50 basis points. Stock markets were resilient, but did not fully recover to 2022 levels. Expected rates of return assumptions showed minimal change, ranging from -28 to +58 basis points annually. Asset allocation trends were minor, with most plans favoring equities, bonds, property, and other investments in developed markets.

Mortality assumptions, influenced by increasing longevity, show life expectancy at age 60 varying between 20 and 30 years in surveyed countries. The projected benefit security ratio declined in most major economies due to lower discount rates, despite positive equity market performance. This volatility is noted as it may impact plan liabilities and assets, especially as companies finalize 2024 year-end accounting assumptions.

The survey underscores the importance of high-quality bonds for discount rates and provides data for Canada, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Switzerland, the UK, and the US. WTW recommends considering market changes since December 31, 2023, for accurate plan valuation.

Key Findings

• Discount Rates and Inflation: Global bond yields fell, with specific declines in government bonds. Discount rates for benefit obligations declined slightly, and inflation rates decreased on average, with exceptions in Japan and Switzerland. Inflation curves are commonly used to derive assumptions.
• Expected Rates of Return: Annual changes in expected returns remained stable, positively correlating with equity-heavy portfolios. Uncertainty in fixed-income and equity markets drives variability across developed countries.
• Mortality and Pension Security: Assumed life expectancy at 60 ranges from 20 to 30 years, affecting benefit payments. The projected benefit security ratio averaged below 1 in some countries, declining due to lower discount rates.
• Asset Allocation: Plans in places like Australia and Hong Kong hold high equity percentages, while regulatory restrictions influence asset mixes in other regions, with minor changes overall.

The report emphasizes how economic factors and assumptions affect financial reporting and plan sustainability. Data is based on end-of-2023 observations, and WTW encourages consultation for detailed analysis.