2008-12-31-莱坊-Future_of_Residential_Development_2009_56页_4mb

THE FUTURE OF RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT

1 What This Report Says

The current housing market crisis stems from:
* Unsustainable price growth fueled by credit availability and limited supply.
* Over-reliance on small flats and medium densities in development, unsuitable for many homesick buyers.
* Prohibitively high infrastructure costs leading to canceled schemes.
* Planning difficulties, including unrealistic density targets, green belt limitations, and burdensome Section 106 agreements.

2 What Has Changed (From the Past Decade)

The industry is shifting due to the crisis:
* Supply-demand dynamics reversed.
* Rejecting "brownfield first" dogma.
* Weaning off "instalment growth" hopes.
* Voluntary minimum space standards essential for quality homes.
* Brownfield regeneration viability needs reassessment.

3 What Should Happen Next (Key Recommendations)

To build a sustainable market, consider:
* Greater greenfield development use.
* Strategic government land sales at depressed prices.
* Mandating build-to-let for long-term viability.
* Moving away from rigid density targets and green belts.
* Modernizing infrastructure funding via Land Value Tax or S4 Capital Taxes.
* Rethinking shared equity schemes.

4 Five Likely Scenarios for the Future (More Possibilities)

As the crisis evolves, anticipate:
* Lower density, easier buildable sites remaining core.
* Renegotiated "Tenure Agreements" driving pilots.
* Higher Property Value appreciation due to restricted access.
* Housing becoming one of the last reliable inflation hinges.

5 Preparing Now: What You Need to Do

Current actions should focus on:
* Creating government-backed platforms to drive developer partnerships.
* Manufacturing standard contract templates for pilot programs.
* Adopting model contracts to accelerate implementation.
* Setting measurable national KPIs for efficiency.

Conclusion

There is no one-size-fits-all solution in housing. What works for urban London might not suit rural market towns. Data-driven, adaptable regional policies are crucial for meaningful progress.