国际能源署-实施清洁能源转型-关注新兴经济体的道路运输（英）-2023.8-88页_1mb

In this report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) examines clean energy transitions in road transport within major emerging economies—Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, and South Africa. By 2021, these nations represented a significant share of road transport energy demand (27%, up from 14% in 2000), with total vehicles increasing from 185 million to nearly 1 billion. Road transport remains a cornerstone of economic growth but is projected to double emissions if current policies persist, underscoring the need for aggressive decarbonization.

The analysis, based on IEA scenarios (e.g., Stated Policies Scenario and Announced Pledges Scenario), shows that without enhanced policies, emissions could peak around 725 Mt CO₂ in the STEPS by 2050, though in the Announced Pledges Scenario, this drops sharply to near zero. Key findings include:

• Electric vehicles (EVs) are accelerating, with Brazil and India leading in two- and three-wheelers; however, challenges like high upfront costs and charging infrastructure gaps persist.
• Biofuels play a transitional role, though long-term reliance on EVs is deemed critical.
• Policy barriers include fragmented governance, lack of national strategies, and insufficient financing, with countries like India and Indonesia needing holistic planning and stronger co-ordination.
• Achieving net-zero pathways requires phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, fostering public-private partnerships, and deploying fiscal tools like carbon pricing or differentiated fuel taxes to encourage sustainable mobility.

The IEA advocates for robust policy frameworks:

• Strengthening transport electrification with demand-side incentives (e.g., subsidies, tax credits), combined with investments in charging infrastructure.
• Implementing stricter fuel economy standards, promoting modal shifts toward public transport, and targeting truck electrification where feasible.
• Enhancing financing mechanisms through sustainable finance frameworks, blending of international and domestic capital, and removing market distortions.

The report concludes that road transport transitions—though complex and capital-intensive—provide a unique opportunity for emerging economies to leapfrog outdated models. Success hinges on stronger governance, aggressive policy implementation, and equitable strategies that manage costs and prioritize social equity.