2022-03-06-瑞士信贷集团-2022年智能手机更新_销量继续缓慢增长_但5G的增长势头仍在继续_25页_845kb

Asia Technology Strategy Summary

Core Content

This document outlines the 2022 smartphone update and the 5G market trends in Asia, along with key insights on stock performance and technology investment themes. It provides unit growth forecasts, ASP (Average Selling Price) trends, regional splits, and 5G adoption projections for the years 2020-2023. The report also highlights major announcements by key tech companies at MWC 2022 and presents preferred stock ideas for the 5G sector.

Main Points

Smartphone Market Trends (2022E)

• Unit Growth:

  • Total smartphone units are forecasted to grow at +4.4% YoY in 2022 and +4.7% YoY in 2023.
  • The growth is expected to be modest due to sluggish sales and inflationary BOM cost pressures.
  • 4Q21 units were slightly below expectations, growing +10% QoQ to 367.6mn vs +12% QoQ seasonality.
  • China shipments grew +3% QoQ in 4Q21 but slower than the rest of the world (RoW).
  • RoW is expected to grow +7% YoY in 2022 and +5.1% YoY in 2023.

• Revenue Growth:

  • Smartphone revenue is projected to grow +4.4% YoY in 2022 and +4.5% YoY in 2023.
  • ASPs are expected to remain flat in 2022 and slightly down in 2023 due to mid-tier and 4G price competition.

• Brand Performance:

  • Apple is expected to ship 85mn units in 4Q21, light due to supply constraints.
  • Android brands (Samsung, Oppo, Lenovo, etc.) are expected to grow +50mn in 2022 on a bottom-up basis.
  • Xiaomi and Transsion are expected to grow +32mn and +15mn, respectively, due to aggressive export strategies.
  • Huawei and Honor are expected to see declines due to market consolidation and supply chain issues.

• 5G Adoption:

  • 5G units are expected to grow to 706.5mn in 2022E and 900.0mn in 2023E, with China leading the adoption at 282.4mn in 2022E and 301.5mn in 2023E.
  • Global 5G adoption is expected to reach 1.3bn units by 2025, approaching 4G levels from 2017-19.
  • 5G growth outside China has been stronger, driven by new iPhone ramp-up and Samsung's mid-tier push.

Key Information

Stock Performance and Investment Themes

• Preferred Tech Themes:

  • 5G
  • Cloud
  • Metaverse
  • EV/Automotive

• Stock Picks:

  • TSMC, Samsung, Mediatek, Novatek, Win Semi, SEMCO, Luxshare, and ZDT are highlighted as top picks.
  • Inari is added to the basket on a pullback, while Xiaomi is removed.

• Performance Metrics:

  • TSMC has an upside of 33.1% and outperform rating.
  • Samsung has an upside of 29.6% and outperform rating.
  • Mediatek has an upside of 29.6% and outperform rating.
  • Luxshare has an upside of 34.8% and outperform rating.

• Market Correction:

  • The 5G basket corrected -10% in 4Q21 but weighted basket only declined -2%, as large caps and lower P/E stocks outperformed the inflation sell-off.

Major Announcements at MWC 2022

• Qualcomm:

  • Showcased FastConnect 7800, the first commercial Wi-Fi 7 solution.
  • Launched Snapdragon Connect program for branding.
  • Announced Snapdragon X70 Modem-RF system with 5G AI Processor.
  • Introduced Snapdragon X65 and X62 5G M.2 Modules for PCs.

• Mediatek:

  • Announced Dimensity 8000/8100 and Dimensity 1300 chips.
  • These chips are upgrades to existing models and support mid-tier and premium segments.

• Samsung:

  • Announced Galaxy Book 2 Pro and Pro 360 Business PC.
  • These PCs are built on Intel vPro platform and secure for enterprise users.

• Xiaomi:

  • Launched Poco X4 Pro 5G and Poco M4 Pro with budget-friendly pricing.

• Honor:

  • Launched Magic 4 series with Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 chipset.
  • Also introduced Watch GS 3 and Earbuds 3 Pro.

• Oppo:

  • Showcased Find X5/X5 Pro with Snapdragon 8 Gen1 and MariSilicon X NPU.
  • Demonstrated 150W and 240W SuperVooc flash charging.

• Realme:

  • Launched GT Pro 2 and GT Neo 3 with Snapdragon 8 Gen1 and 150W UltraDart Charge.

• Nokia:

  • Launched C-series smartphones with Unisoc SoC.

• TCL:

  • Introduced TCL Fold and Roll, a book-style foldable phone.
  • Launched TCL 30 series with Mediatek Helio G37 and 50MP main cameras.
  • Showcased Nxtpaper Max 10 tablet with paper-style surface.

• Lenovo:

  • Announced ThinkPad X13, ThinkPad Extreme X1 Gen 5, ThinkVision M14d, and IdeaPad Flex 5.
  • These products support 5G, enterprise security, and convertible laptops.

Conclusion

The smartphone market continues to grow slowly in 2022, with 5G adoption progressing as expected. Inflation and supply chain constraints are key factors holding back unit growth, while Android brands are showing more resilience than Apple. The 5G sector is highlighted as a key investment opportunity, with major tech companies like Qualcomm, Mediatek, and Samsung driving innovation. Stocks in the 5G basket are seen as outperformers, with TSMC, Samsung, and Mediatek leading the way.