2025-06-05-Jefferies-利安德巴塞尔（LYB）_精简欧盟业务_退出四项上游资产_9页_187kb

LyondellBasell Equity Research Summary

Investment View

• Thesis: Relies on improving refining margins, integrated chain profitability, healthy market demand, a widening feedstock spread, productivity gains, and successful circularity initiatives.
• Valuation: Base case price target $63 (8.2x 2027E EPS), upside scenario $165 (peak ROA 23%), downside $50 (trough ROA 5%).
• Risks: Deteriorating demand, narrowing spread, M&A mishaps, sentiment shifts.

Company Update: Divestiture

• Transaction: Sold four European olefin assets (PP, PE, ethylene, propylene) to private equity firm AEQUITA.
• Financials: LYB contributed €265m, potential €100m earnout. Reduces capex (€110m) and pension liabilities (€150m). More EU exits expected.
• EBITDA Impact: Non-contributing assets divested; fixed costs reduced €400m yearly.

Strategic Outlook & Goals

• Long-Term Focus: Circular plastics (e.g., MoReTec facility), circularity projects in Europe.
• Sustainability: Net zero emissions by 2050, 50% renewable electricity by 2030, 2Mt recycled/renewable polymers by 2030.
• Growth Shift: Capital shifts from European divestitures to US/Middle East growth projects.

Key Metrics

• Current Price: $56.01 (HOLD rating from Jefferies).
• EPS Targets: 2027E ~$7.70 at PT of $63.
• Past Performance: Significant volatility, driven by refining markets, and shifting sentiment (downgrade history noted).

Analyst Certification & Disclosure

• Analysts: Laurence Alexander, Daniel Rizzo, Kevin Estok, Xianrao Zhu, Carol Jiang.
• Disclosures: Standard equity research disclosures provided, including potential conflicts of interest and restricted views.