2021-12-31-新经济思想研究所-世界汽车工业形态的变化_零部件国际贸易的多层网络分析（英）_56页_6mb

The Changing Shape of the World Automobile Industry: Multilayer Network Analysis of International Trade in Components and Parts

Authors

• Margherita Russo
• Fabrizio Alboni
• Jorge Carreto Sanginés
• Manlio De Domenico
• Giuseppe Mangioni
• Simone Righi
• Annamaria Simonazzi

Abstract

This paper analyzes the evolution of international trade in automotive components and parts from 1993 to 2017, examining changes driven by trade agreements and technological shifts, including the rise of electric vehicles. Using multilayer network analysis with the Infomap algorithm, the study identifies clusters of countries and their specific trades, highlighting shifts in geographical specialization and interconnections.

Key Findings

Introduction

The automotive industry significantly impacts global economic growth. The study employs multilayer network analysis to examine trade dynamics in automotive components and parts from 1993 to 2017, focusing on bilateral trade flows and network structures.

Data and Methodology

• Data Source: UN Comtrade database, analyzing 30 SITC Rev.3 items covering automotive components and parts among 42 countries, accounting for 98% of world trade.
• Method: Infomap multilayer clustering algorithm to identify clusters of countries and their specific trades, revealing relative importance and interconnections.

Results

• Network Evolution: Over 25 years, the number of clusters decreased from 39 to 16, with denser and more hierarchical networks formed by Germany, the US, and China.
• Country Contributions: Germany maintained high centrality; the US saw a decline but remained significant; China and Mexico emerged as key players post-NAFTA.
• Trade Patterns: Inter-cluster connections increased, with significant changes in the roles of peripheral countries like Mexico and Canada.

Electric Vehicle Transition

• The shift to electric vehicles in 2020 accelerated changes in trade, potentially disrupting traditional engine component markets and reshaping global value chains.

Conclusion

The analysis underscores the dynamic nature of automotive trade networks, influenced by geopolitical events and technological advancements, providing insights into future restructuring and regional specialization.

Contributions

• Offers a detailed multilayer network analysis enhancing understanding of trade regionalization and sectoral changes.
• Provides a benchmark for post-pandemic and electric mobility transitions in global trade dynamics.

Further research will explore electric mobility's impact and integrate other networks like technology and competence structures to provide a holistic view.