20140328-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_569kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 28 Mar 2014
Core Content Overview
This summary provides an update on oil and gas market developments and valuations across Asia and other regions, including news headlines and analyst reports.
Key News Highlights
- Sinopec increased its March naphtha ex-factory prices by CNY10/tonne, raising prices to CN6,650/tonne.
- PetroChina's Huabei Petrochemical is planning a 100-day shutdown of its 800 tonnes/day etherified C4 facility, which accounts for 17% of the total etherified C4 supply in north China, expected to impact prices significantly.
- China's benzene import volume dropped by 27.3% MoM in February to 59,891 tonnes, due to a wide Asia-US arbitrage window and weak domestic prices.
- Nan Ya Plastics is operating its No. 4 MEG facility at 70% capacity due to historical issues and unattractive market prices, while running three other MEG plants at 90% utilisation.
- Malaysia has approved EOR projects, with Petronas expecting to sanction two WAG EOR projects in Baram Delta, and first oil expected by 2017 or 2018.
- The implementation of EOR technologies is projected to increase domestic production by 150,000 bpd by 2020, offering 40-50% improvement over traditional methods.
- Kashagan mega project is facing pipeline leak inspections that may extend into 2Q14, with the project having been operational for a few weeks before shutdown.
- Vestigo Petroleum has secured the Tembikai risk service contract from Petronas Carigali, aiming to develop 5m to 10m of oil and gas reserves.
Latest Analyst Reports
- Petron Corp is viewed positively for 2015 with a BUY rating and a target price of PHP15.90. Despite a 187% increase in reported profit for FY13, 4Q13 earnings declined by 39% YoY. The company is on track for full commercial operations of its RMP-2 project by 2015.
- SapuraKencana Petroleum is expected to meet expectations with a BUY rating and a target price of MYR5.30. The company's Newfield Malaysia is set to drive group earnings with +MYR116m in FY15 and +MYR447m in FY16.
- Ezion Holdings is rated BUY with a target price of SGD2.90. The listing of Gulf Marine Services reinforces its valuation attractiveness, and the liftboat market in Southeast Asia is expected to see increased adoption and benefits for the company.
- Malaysia and Singapore Oil & Gas are rated OVERWEIGHT. The sector is expected to be driven by rig building, drilling, OSV upcycles, and Petronas capex. Top BUYs include Bumi Armada, Dialog, SAKP, Perisai, and Perdana for Malaysia, and SembCorp Marine, Ezion, Mermaid, and Nam Cheong for Singapore.
Major Oil & Gas Prices and Indexes (as of 27 Mar 2014)
| Product | Bloomberg Ticker | Units | Last Price | Absolute Change | 1D Change | 1W Change | 1M Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil (WTI) | CLA COMDTY | USD/bbl. | 101.42 | 2.23 | 2.2% | 2.3% | -0.6% |
| Crude Oil (Brent) | COA COMDTY | USD/bbl. | 107.83 | 0.84 | 0.8% | 1.9% | -2.2% |
| Dubai Fateh Spot | PGCRDUBA Index | USD/barrel | 103.70 | 0.05 | 0.0% | 0.6% | -2.5% |
| China Daqing Spot | APCRDAQG Index | USD/barrel | 105.31 | 0.03 | 0.0% | 0.6% | -4.5% |
| NYMEX Henry Hub | NGA COMDTY | USD/MMBtu | 4.54 | 0.00 | 2.9% | 1.3% | -1.7% |
| Singapore 92 RON Spot | MOGFM92S Index | USD/barrel | 116.74 | 0.21 | 0.2% | 0.3% | -0.2% |
| Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot | GASL500P Index | USD/gallon | 122.13 | -0.19 | -0.2% | 1.2% | -2.2% |
| 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot | N6SH180S Index | USD/mt | 607.61 | 1.80 | 0.3% | 0.4% | -1.8% |
| Gold | XAU CURNCY | USD/Oz | 1,292.49 | -18.68 | -1.4% | -2.8% | -3.3% |
| USD-JPY | USDJPY CURNCY | Fx rate | 102.19 | -0.07 | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.3% |
| USD-EUR | USDEUR CURNCY | Fx rate | 0.73 | 0.00 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| USD-CNY | USDCNY CURNCY | Fx rate | 6.21 | 0.01 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.9% |
| DJI | DJI INDEX | Index | 16,264.23 | -103.65 | -0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| S&P 500 | SPX INDEX | Index | 1,849.04 | -16.58 | -0.9% | -0.6% | 0.1% |
| 30Y T-Bill | USGG30YR INDEX | Yield | 3.53 | -0.06 | -1.8% | -3.5% | -4.6% |
Valuation Comparison (Asia)
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price 27-Mar | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | P/E (X) | EV/EBITDA (X) | RoE (%) | P/B (X) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | NR | 8.42 | NR | 219.9 | 92.7 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 11.8 | 1.1 | 4.8 |
| Sinopoe - H | 386 HK | NR | 6.96 | NR | 96.7 | 112.0 | 9.7 | 8.6 | 12.2 | 1.1 | 4.4 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | NR | 12.18 | NR | 70.1 | 112.8 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 18.9 | 1.2 | 4.1 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 331.00 | NR | 47.0 | 17.7 | 11.7 | 10.7 | 16.8 | 1.9 | 2.9 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 900.75 | NR | 48.4 | 48.5 | 12.7 | 12.5 | 11.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | buy | 334.15 | 443.00 | 10.6 | 12.0 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 25.1 | 1.3 | 3.4 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 454.55 | NR | 5.5 | 8.6 | 17.5 | 15.6 | 11.5 | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 296.95 | NR | 1.7 | 5.7 | 20.1 | 10.8 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 2.9 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | buy | 11.70 | 15.90 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 29.3 | 33.4 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Phoenix Petroleum Philippines | PNX PM | buy | 4.98 | 7.22 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 12.7 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| S-Oil | 010950 KS | NR | 61,000 | NR | 6.4 | 16.5 | 24.6 | 12.0 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| SK Innovation | 096770 KS | NR | 121,500 | NR | 10.5 | 25.9 | 47.9 | 8.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 2.6 |
| GS Holdings | 078930 KS | NR | 47,400 | NR | 4.1 | 11.1 | 17.5 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 0.9 | 2.8 |
| Formosa Petrochemical | 6505 TT | NR | 77.20 | NR | 24.1 | 13.8 | 27.4 | 25.9 | 12.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 |
| Bangchak Petroleum | BCP TB | buy | 31.00 | 41.00 | 1.3 | 3.6 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 13.9 | 1.2 | 4.4 |
| IRPC PCL | IRPC TB | hold | 3.30 | 3.74 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 82.5 | 22.0 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 2.9 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | buy | 71.00 | 87.00 | 9.9 | 26.0 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 14.4 | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | sell | 52.00 | 65.00 | 3.3 | 7.2 | 10.2 | 9.1 | 11.7 | 1.2 | 6.0 |
| Petroleo Brasileiro | PETR3 BZ | NR | 14.82 | NR | 87.4 | 63.0 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 0.6 | 4.0 |
| Gazprom | GAZP RX | NR | 130.83 | NR | 87.1 | 265.1 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 12.7 | 0.3 | 5.7 |
| Reosneft Oil | ROSN LI | NR | 6.55 | NR | 69.4 | 76.0 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 20.2 | 0.7 | 6.2 |
| LUKOIL | LKOH RX | NR | 1,908.00 | NR | 45.6 | 87.7 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 10.3 | 0.6 | 6.4 |
| MOL Hunarian O&G | MOL HB | NR | 11,950.00 | NR | 5.5 | 4.5 | 48.9 | 8.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 4.0 |
Oil Service Valuation Comparison (Asia)
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price 27-Mar | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | P/E (X) | EV/EBITDA (X) | RoE (%) | P/B (X) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Oilfield Services | 3337 HK | NR | 4.77 | NR | 1.3 | 11.5 | 21.2 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 |
| China Oilfield Services-H | 2883 HK | NR | 18.40 | NR | 12.7 | 34.0 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 17.3 | 1.5 | 2.9 |
| Chu Kong Petroleum | 1938 HK | NR | 2.21 | NR | 0.3 | 0.4 | 16.1 | 6.0 | 16.5 | 10.0 | 0.5 |
| Hilong Holding | 1623 HK | NR | 4.31 | NR | 0.9 | 4.7 | 16.5 | 11.3 | 17.5 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
| Honghua Group | 196 HK | NR | 1.89 | NR | 0.8 | 4.8 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 13.4 | 0.9 | 3.9 |
| Sinopec Engineering-H | 2386 HK | NR | 8.39 | NR | 4.8 | 9.5 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 18.1 | 1.2 | 4.7 |
| SPT Energy | 1251 HK | NR | 3.53 | NR | 0.7 | 4.8 | 14.2 | 11.2 | 18.6 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Alam Maritim | AMRB MK | buy | 1.41 | 1.90 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 14.0 | 11.6 | 15.7 | 2.2 | 0.2 |
| Barakah Petroleum | BARAKAH MK | buy | 1.50 | 1.85 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 17.7 | 18.1 | 27.0 | 4.2 | 0.0 |
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | buy | 3.88 | 5.00 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 26.4 | 18.7 | 10.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| Coastal Contracts | COCO MK | NR | 4.90 | NR | 0.8 | 1.3 | 15.6 | 12.6 | 16.4 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| Daya Materials | DAYA MK | NR | 0.33 | NR | 0.1 | 3.5 | 120.4 | 10.2 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 0.8 |
| Dayang Enterprise | DEHB MK | NR | 3.79 | NR | 0.9 | 2.0 | 31.5 | 14.7 | 23.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 |
| Dialog | DLG MK | buy | 3.52 | 3.90 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 43.6 | 29.8 | 15.2 | 6.3 | 0.9 |
| KNM | KNMG MK | NR | 0.78 | NR | 0.3 | 7.5 | 47.5 | 21.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| MMHE | MMHE MK | buy | 3.69 | 4.20 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 24.9 | 33.9 | 9.3 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| Muhibbah Engineering | MUHI MK | NR | 2.87 | NR | 0.4 | 1.2 | 13.9 | 11.4 | 16.8 | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| Perdana Petroleum | PETR MK | buy | 1.90 | 2.55 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 22.0 | 14.8 | 12.1 | 2.5 | 0.0 |
| Perisai Petroleum | PPT MK | buy | 1.57 | 1. |
Summary
The summary outlines recent developments in the oil and gas sector across Asia, highlighting price changes, project updates, and analyst ratings. Key insights include the impact of production shutdowns on market prices, the role of EOR technologies in increasing domestic production, and the valuation trends for major oil and gas companies. Analysts maintain a positive outlook on several firms, including Petron Corp, SapuraKencana Petroleum, and Ezion Holdings, while cautioning on the valuation of Thai Oil PCL. The sector is expected to be driven by rig building, drilling, and capital expenditures, with the liftboat market in Southeast Asia showing potential for growth.
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