2023-10-02-莱坊-Brisbane_Prime_Residential_Insight_Q3_2023_3页_813kb

报告摘要

Brisbane Prime Residential Insight Summary (Q3 2023)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the Brisbane prime luxury residential market, including sales, rental performance, and future forecasts. It also includes insights on wealth trends and the economic environment influencing the market.

Wealth Trends

HNWI Population Growth: Brisbane's high-net-worth individual (HNWI) population, defined as individuals with net wealth exceeding US$1 million, grew by 4.3% in 2022 to 221,025 people.
HNWI Share in Australia: Brisbane accounts for 10.0% of the total Australian HNWI population, up from 9.7% five years ago.
HNWI Growth Projection: The HNWI population is expected to grow by 80.1% by the end of 2027, outpacing the national growth of 71.1%.
UHNWI Population Decline: The ultra-high-net-worth (UHNW) population in Brisbane fell by 4.6% in 2022 to 1,215 individuals with net wealth exceeding US$30 million.
UHNWI Growth Projection: The UHNW population is forecast to grow by 83.9% over the next five years, significantly higher than the national UHNW growth of 40.9%.

Economic Environment

Queensland Economic Growth: Recorded 4.4% growth in 2022.
Brisbane Unemployment Rate: Stood at 3.3% in June 2023, a 59 bps decrease from the previous year.
Economic Growth Forecast:
- 2023: Taper back to 1.5%
- 2024: Expected to rise to 3.5%
- 2025: Forecast at 3.3%
Stock Market Performance:
- S&P/ASX 200 rose by 0.4% in Q2 2023, with a total increase of 9.7% over the past year.
- Forecast to increase by 2.8% in 2023, 2.8% in 2024, and 4.8% in 2025.
Company Profits:
- Grew by 19.3% in 2022 and 5.3% in 2021.
- Forecast to fall by 0.5% in 2023, 5.8% in 2024, and recover by 2.3% in 2025.
Private Business Investment:
- Grew by 8.0% in the year to June 2023, higher than the 7.1% growth in the previous quarter and the 2.2% growth a year earlier.

Sales & Price Performance

Sales Volume:
- +57% increase in the June 2023 quarter compared to the previous quarter.
- -12% decrease in annual sales volume compared to June 2022.
- 228 prime residential homes sold in the June 2023 quarter.
Price Performance:
- Prime residential prices fell by 1.0% over the year ending June 2023.
- Prices declined by 0.6% in the past quarter.
- Forecast for price changes:
  - +2% in 2023
  - +3% in 2024
  - +4% in 2025
  - Average of 3% for 2023–2025.

Rental Market

Rental Growth:
- Rents increased by 3.6% in the June 2023 quarter.
- Annual rental growth stood at 14.4%.
Gross Rental Yields:
- Increased by 11 bps to 2.74% in Q2 2023.
Rental Forecast:
- +16% in 2023
- +10% in 2024
- +8% in 2025
- Average of 11% for 2023–2025.

Lending Environment

Official Cash Rate:
- Remained at 4.10% as of 5 September 2023.
- Forecast to decrease to an average of 4.07% by the end of 2024.
Mortgage Rates:
- Owner Occupiers:
  - 3-year fixed term: +5 bps to 6.32%
  - Standard variable: +50 bps to 8.52%
- Investors:
  - 3-year fixed term: +18 bps to 6.50%
  - Standard variable: +50 bps to 9.10%

Key Drivers Forecast

Indicator	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	2023–2025f AVE
Economic Growth	6.1%	3.2%	1.5%	3.5%	3.3%	2.8%
Unemployment Rate	5.1%	3.7%	3.7%	4.3%	4.3%	4.1%
Cash Rate Target	0.1%	1.2%	3.8%	3.9%	2.9%	3.6%
Stock Market	17.5%	-1.7%	2.8%	2.8%	4.8%	3.5%
Company Profits	5.3%	19.3%	-0.5%	-5.8%	2.3%	-1.3%
Prime Price Performance	11%	0%	2%	3%	4%	3%
Prime Rental Market	5%	12%	16%	10%	8%	11%

Key Contacts

Michelle Ciesielski – Research
Email: michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +612 9036 6659
Blake Goddard – Site Sales
Email: blake.goddard@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +617 3246 8848
Sally Edwardsen – Franchise Partnerships
Email: sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +612 9036 6845
Erin van Tuil – Residential
Email: erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +612 9036 6699
Luke Hayes – Residential Project Sales
Email: luke.hayes@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +612 9036 6700
Alistair Carpenter – Valuations
Email: al.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +612 9036 662