2012年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Gazproms_Changing_Fortunes_4页_198kb

Gazprom's Changing Fortunes Summary

Core Content

Gazprom, once the world's fourth most valuable corporation with a market capitalisation of nearly $300 billion in 2008, has faced significant challenges since the 2009 gas crisis. Its market value has dropped to around $90 billion, reflecting a decline in both domestic and international demand for its natural gas. The report outlines the shifting dynamics in the global gas market and Gazprom's strategic responses to these changes.

Main Points

1. Decline in Demand and Revenue

• Domestic consumption in Russia has fallen, making it the second-largest gas market after the US.
• Export volumes have decreased, particularly to Western Europe, where Russian gas imports dropped by up to 50 bcm in 2009.
  • Germany and Italy accounted for nearly half of this drop.
  • Turkey reduced its gas imports by 25% compared to the previous year.
• Commercial disputes have arisen due to the failure to deliver gas under long-term 'take-or-pay' contracts.
• Undelivered gas is valued at $2.5 billion, and European companies argue for more flexible contract terms.

2. Market Shift from Seller's to Buyer's Market

• New LNG supplies have created a surplus, leading to lower spot prices.
• Forward prices in the UK dropped from over 100 pence to 40 pence per therm in a short period.
• European companies are opting for cheaper LNG or other traders rather than Gazprom's long-term contracts, which are priced higher.
• Decoupling of gas and oil prices is being discussed, with some experts suggesting that the link is no longer justified due to the loss of end-user choice.
• GECF (Gas Exporting Countries Forum) may consider reworking pricing mechanisms, but divergent interests between pipeline and LNG exporters could lead to controversy.

3. Emerging Market Players

• Qatar, the US, Azerbaijan, Iran, and Turkmenistan are increasing their presence in the global gas market.
• Qatar is expanding its LNG production.
• Azerbaijan is seeking to supply gas to the EU via the Nabucco pipeline.
• Iran is developing its South Pars gas field and has agreements with Turkey to transit Turkmen gas.
• Gazprom is losing market share to independent producers like Novatek, which can offer better prices and terms due to Gazprom's inflexibility in domestic pricing.

4. Gazprom's Strategic Responses

• Reduced investment by $5 billion in 2009 and delayed development of the Bovanenko field.
• Relaxed payment conditions for industrial users in Russia, as proposed by Prime Minister Putin.
• Focused on new markets, particularly China, with a proposed framework for gas supply via two new pipelines by 2014–15.
• Invested in alternative transit routes, such as the North Stream and South Stream pipelines, to reduce dependence on Ukraine.
  • North Stream has secured all permits except from Germany.
  • South Stream has gained Turkey's approval, increasing pressure on Bulgaria.

Key Information

• Market Uncertainty: The combination of economic downturn, environmental policies, and market glut is creating uncertainty for Gazprom and other gas producers.
• Future Outlook: Gas demand in Europe may rebound with economic recovery, but the impact of low-carbon policies like energy efficiency and renewables could reduce overall consumption.
• Gazprom's Position: Despite challenges, Gazprom's pipeline infrastructure and long-term contracts still provide some stability in the European market.
• CEPS Context: The report is authored by Roderick Kefferpütz from the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), a leading European think tank focused on policy research and analysis.

Conclusion

Gazprom is navigating a complex and evolving gas market landscape, marked by declining demand, pricing volatility, and competition from new players. While it remains a key player in Europe, its future depends on how quickly the economy recovers, the implementation of low-carbon policies, and its ability to adapt to new market realities. The report underscores the difficulty in predicting European gas demand due to the interplay of consumer and producer interests, and highlights the need for greater market flexibility and cooperation.

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