20160617-招商证券_香港_-Morning_Express_Research_Highlights_14页_509kb

报告摘要

Morning Express Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive equity research summary from China Merchants Securities (HK) Co., Ltd., covering key insights on specific stocks, market trends, and macroeconomic factors affecting the financial markets.

Key Stock Highlights

Xinyi Solar (968 HK, HK$3.0, BUY, TP HK$4.3)

Market Consolidation: The government's focus on "Top-runner" projects is expected to accelerate market consolidation in the upstream solar industry, benefiting companies with cost and technological advantages.
Profit Surge: 1HFY16E net profit is expected to rise by 70-90% YoY, driven by a ~50% YoY increase in solar glass sales and improved profitability due to natural gas price cuts.
ASP Trends: While ASP volatility is expected in 2H2016E, the overall pressure is anticipated to be limited due to continued capacity expansion and higher proportion of Top-runner projects.
Capacity Growth: Targeted to add ~700MW of new capacity in FY16E, with total solar capacity reaching 1.7GW by end-FY16E.
Double-Glass Modules: Expected to gain traction, providing a mid-long term catalyst for the company.
Valuation: Maintains a BUY rating with an unchanged target price of HK$4.3.

Yuzhou Properties (1628 HK, HK$2.04, BUY, TP HK$2.6)

Positioning: Strong presence in selected major cities, with contracted sales and core profit growth expected at 28% / 18% in 2016E.
Valuation: Attracted at 69% discount to 1-year forward NAV, with a 9.4% dividend yield (vs. 5% for peers).
Sales Performance: 5M16 contracted sales reached RMB10.4bn, 1.5x YoY, with a YTD take-up rate of 80% (vs. 65% in 2015).
M&A Catalyst: Potential for re-rating through property M&A deals, with valuation generally above 1x P/B.
Revised Full-Year Estimate: Raised to RMB18bn for FY16E, +28% YoY, supported by over RMB30bn of saleable resources.
Earnings Growth: Expected to support 17% / 14% earnings growth in FY17 / FY18E.

FOMC Meeting Summary

Rate Decision: The Fed kept the Fed Funds Target Rate unchanged at 0.25-0.5%, with a slower pace of rate hikes.
Economic Outlook: Revised forecasts show lower GDP growth for 2016 (from 2.2% to 2.0% YoY) and 2017 (from 2.1% to 2.0% YoY), but higher core inflation in both years.
Rate Hike Outlook: Two hikes in 2H16, three each in 2017 and 2018, with a slower pace than previously expected.
July Meeting: Still "live", but rate hike seems unlikely due to mixed economic signals.
September: Next key point to watch, with a single rate hike in 2016 expected.
Brexit Impact: Considered in the decision, but no explicit mention in the statement. Yellen's comments suggest ongoing uncertainty.
USD Impact: Recent dovish signals and Brexit concerns have weakened the USD and pushed back rate hike expectations.

Market Indices and Commodities

Hong Kong Indices: All indices declined slightly, with the Hang Seng Index down 2.1% and the CSI 300 down 0.7%.
Commodities:
- Brent Oil dropped 3.92% to $47.05.
- COMEX Gold fell 0.53% to $1281.5.
- COMEX Copper decreased 1.82% to $205.3.
- LME Copper dropped 2.06% to $4544.0.
- BDI fell 0.99% to 598.0.

Research Coverage List (June 17, 2016)

Sector	Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (HK$)	12-Month TP	% Upside	Market Cap (US$mn)	EPS (2015)	EPS (2016E)	EPS (2017E)	P/E (2015)	P/E (2016E)	P/E (2017E)	Analyst
Auto & Auto Parts	Brilliance China	1114 HK	BUY	7.5	8.2	9	4,882	0.69	0.74	0.84	8.7	8.2	8.9	Alex NG
Auto & Auto Parts	China ZhengTong Auto	1728 HK	BUY	2.89	3.5	21	824	0.29	0.39	0.46	8.0	6.0	6.3	Alex NG
Auto & Auto Parts	Geely Automobile	175 HK	BUY	4.16	5.2	25	4,741	0.26	0.33	0.42	12.8	10.2	9.9	Alex NG
Auto & Auto Parts	Yuzhou Property	1628 HK	BUY	2.04	2.6	27	1,004	0.54	0.52	0.61	3.8	3.9	3.3	John SO
Auto & Auto Parts	Country Garden	2007 HK	NEUTRAL	3.04	3.0	-1	8,858	0.54	0.56	0.67	5.6	5.4	4.5	John SO
Auto & Auto Parts	Agile Property	3383 HK	BUY	3.78	4.6	22	1,910	0.75	0.81	0.92	4.5	3.5	3.7	John SO
Technology, Media & Telecom	China Telecom	728 HK	NEUTRAL	3.31	4.19	3	5,926	3.24	4.20	5.22	41.7	32.5	22.7	Andrew HUANG
Technology, Media & Telecom	NetDragon	777 HK	BUY	23.85	41.3	73	1,523	0.03	0.23	0.34	636.3	83.7	70.1	Andrew HUANG
Technology, Media & Telecom	Tencent	700 HK	BUY	168.8	174.0	3	40,603	3.24	4.20	5.22	41.7	32.5	22.7	Andrew HUANG

What to Watch

Economic Data

US Building Permits: Forecasted at 1.12mn (Prior: N/A).
US Housing Starts: Forecasted at 1.17mn (Prior: N/A).
China House Prices: Forecasted at 6.20% YoY (Prior: N/A).

Company Events

Multiple companies released annual reports and financial results for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2016.

Key Takeaways

Xinyi Solar is well-positioned to benefit from market consolidation and double-glass module adoption, with a BUY rating.
Yuzhou Properties is expected to see good sales performance and is undervalued relative to its NAV, with a BUY rating.
The FOMC adopted a dovish stance, with no rate hike expected in June, and one hike likely in September.
The overall market sentiment is cautious, with mixed economic signals influencing the Fed's decision.
The Hong Kong and China indices show declines, while commodities like Brent Oil and Gold also experienced drops.
The research coverage list highlights growth potential in several sectors, including Auto, Technology, and Consumer Staples.