2025-06-11-Jefferies-并非我们所期待的改革_加利福尼亚州参议院法案254领先于AB_1054改革_9页_361kb

Equity Research Summary: USA Power & Utilities (June 11, 2025)

Jefferies' equity research report focuses on California Senate Bill 254 (SB 254) and its implications for power and utility companies. The bill, approved by the state Senate, represents a significant regulatory overhaul that initially targeted affordability but has expanded to address wildfire costs, clean energy transition, and ratepayer protection.

Key Elements of SB 254:

• Creates the POWER program to reimburse utilities for "public policy-driven" capital expenditures.
• Exempts $5Bn (based on Wildfire Fund allocation) and $10Bn (allocated as PG&E $4.5Bn, SCE $4.4Bn, SDG&E $1.1Bn) of capex from ROE calculations.
• Establishes the Clean Energy Infrastructure Authority to enforce California's 100% clean energy goals.
• Requires rate increases to align with or exceed inflation, with justifications and reporting required.

The bill faces passage challenges due to the June 15 budget deadline and summer recess, but analysts suggest passage before July 18 is plausible. Questions remain about projected customer savings and Assembly support.

Company Highlights:

• Edison International (EIX): A regulated utility holding company in California. Research recommends a Buy rating with a price target of $78.00, reflecting potential cost shifts and regulatory changes. Risks include ROE prudency and capital market access.
• PG&E Corporation (PCG): Part of Edison International's portfolio, operating in California with nuclear assets. Recommended Buy rating (price target $22.00), impacted by capex exclusions and wildfire mitigation. Risks include regulatory actions and natural disasters.
• Sempra Energy (SRE): Focused on energy infrastructure. Hold rating (price target $78.00), with retention on equity reflecting lower growth potential compared to peers.

Valuation and Risks:

All companies face regulatory, environmental, and political risks, including natural disasters and cyber incidents. Key valuation methodologies include DCF, ROE, and comparative analysis to 2027. Analysts emphasize the potential for cost shifting from IOUs to ratepayers.

Analyst Insights:

• View SB 254 as a broad regulatory shift rather than purely affordability-focused, raising concerns about cost structures.
• Existing AB 1054 reforms (requiring IOU contributions) add to the complexity.
• Hedge funds face scrutiny over wildfire claim acquisitions, potentially increasing tension with insurers and authorities.
• Brian Russo and other analysts certify their views are independent.

Outlook:

SB 254 could alter California's utility landscape by redirecting capex and focusing on clean energy. The legislation's success depends on legislative progress and stakeholder alignment.