2016年-数据局_GP：Bullhound-Technology-Predictions-2016_32页_4mb

GP Bullhound Technology Predictions 2016 Summary

Core Content

GP Bullhound's 2016 Technology Predictions outline the major trends and innovations expected to shape the tech industry over the coming year. The report highlights the transition of several niche technologies into mainstream adoption, the rise of new platforms, and the ongoing shift in how businesses and consumers interact with technology.

Main Predictions

1. Virtual Reality Becomes Reality

• Overview: 2016 marks the launch of VR headsets, with major players like Facebook (Oculus Rift), Sony (PlayStation VR), and HTC (Vive/Steam VR) entering the market.
• Mainstream Adoption: VR is expected to gain traction in gaming and media, but will not become a "must have" for the general public immediately.
• Content and Software Development: Media companies and venture capital firms are investing in VR content creation, with startups like Jaunt and AltspaceVR leading the way.
• Future Outlook: Widespread adoption is anticipated once VR experiences become more seamless, aesthetically appealing, and affordable.

2. "Quantified Self" Transitions from Niche to Mainstream

• Overview: Wearables and digital fitness tools are becoming more integrated into everyday life.
• Market Growth: Wearable device shipments are expected to grow significantly, reaching 173 million units by 2019.
• Key Players: Companies like Fitbit, Under Armour, and Nike are leading the charge in digital fitness, while traditional fashion brands like Fossil and Ralph Lauren are incorporating wearables into their product lines.
• Future Outlook: Continued collaboration between tech and fashion brands will help drive mainstream acceptance of wearables.

3. Automotive Industry Ripe for Innovation

• Overview: The automotive industry is shifting towards connectivity and software integration.
• Connected Car Landscape: Car operating systems and in-car technology are becoming major drivers of consumer interest and sales.
• Key Players: Apple (CarPlay), Google (Android Auto), and automotive tech companies like Bosch and Harman are leading the innovation in this space.
• Future Outlook: While self-driving technology is still in its early stages, the integration of in-car tech will continue to grow, with consolidation expected among smaller software providers.

4. Alternative Lending Continues to Shine Brightly in Financial Technology Sector

• Overview: Alternative lending, particularly P2P platforms, is gaining traction and becoming a significant part of the financial ecosystem.
• Market Growth: Alternative lending platforms have seen significant investment, with SoFi raising $1 billion and Avant securing $325 million.
• Advantages: These platforms offer faster, more convenient loan processing and lower overhead costs compared to traditional banks.
• Future Outlook: Traditional banks are expected to respond with partnerships and acquisitions, while regulatory concerns and economic downturns may favor secured lending platforms.

5. Gaming Giants Fortify Positions in Top Grossing Charts

• Overview: Major gaming companies are consolidating their positions by acquiring smaller, independent developers.
• Key Players: Companies like Activision Blizzard, Nintendo, and Tencent are expanding their influence in the gaming industry.
• Future Outlook: The gaming landscape is expected to become more consolidated, with big names dominating the market.

6. Digital Video Becomes More Measured

• Overview: Digital video platforms are evolving to become more measurable and effective for advertising.
• Market Growth: Tech and media players are investing in tools to prove ROI to advertisers.
• Future Outlook: This shift will help digital video compete more effectively with traditional media.

7. "Deskless" Workers Come to Forefront in Enterprise Mobility Shift

• Overview: The shift to mobile-first enterprises is focusing on "deskless" workers.
• Market Growth: Mobile apps are expected to enhance productivity and connectivity for these workers.
• Future Outlook: This trend will continue to grow as more businesses adopt mobile solutions.

8. Cybersecurity Continues Soul Searching

• Overview: Cybersecurity remains a top priority for businesses due to increasing threats and breaches.
• Market Growth: Major companies like Cisco and IBM are investing heavily in security solutions.
• Future Outlook: Comprehensive security solutions will become the norm, with multi-factor authentication and predictive intelligence playing key roles.

9. Drones Will Fly Into Headwinds of Uncertainty

• Overview: Drones are becoming more popular, but face regulatory and technical challenges.
• Market Growth: Despite popularity, mass adoption is not expected in 2016.
• Future Outlook: Regulatory clarity and technological advancements will be necessary for widespread use.

10. Unicorn Hunting Now in Season

• Overview: Tech unicorns will face increased scrutiny and may lose their status as valuations drop below $1 billion.
• Market Growth: The market for unicorns is expected to become more competitive.
• Future Outlook: This trend may lead to a more consolidated and mature tech ecosystem.

Key Information

• M&A Activity: 2015 saw significant M&A activity, with $624 billion in tech deals globally.
• Venture Capital: $126 billion was invested into venture-backed companies in 2015.
• Virtual Reality: Expected to generate $150 billion in revenue by 2020, with early adoption in gaming and media.
• Wearables: Global shipments reached 76 million in 2015, with a projected 23% CAGR to 2019.
• Connected Cars: Software and tech players like Apple and Google are shaping the future of car tech.
• Alternative Lending: P2P platforms are disrupting traditional lending, with major investments and growth expected in 2016.
• Cybersecurity: Becoming a critical concern for businesses, with increased investment and adoption of comprehensive solutions.
• Unicorns: Expected to face increased scrutiny, with some potentially losing their unicorn status.

Conclusion

The 2016 predictions emphasize the continued evolution of key technologies and their impact on various industries. The report anticipates a year of significant growth, innovation, and consolidation, with virtual reality, wearables, connected cars, and alternative lending leading the charge. At the same time, cybersecurity and regulatory challenges will remain important factors influencing the tech landscape.