战略与国际研究中心-FYSA_-For-Your-Situational-Awareness-l-Issue-6_4页_754kb

FYSA Summary: April 2014 Issue

Core Content

The April 2014 issue of FYSA (For Your Situational Awareness) provides an overview of upcoming and recent events, analyses on nuclear modernization, and insights into development assistance and technological trends. It is published by the International Security Program (ISP) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a nonpartisan research organization focused on international public policy.

Upcoming Events

• AFRICA AND THE ARMS TRADE TREATY

  • Date: April 23, 2014
  • Time: 1:00 p.m. - 2:30 p.m.
  • Location: CSIS, 1616 Rhode Island Ave., NW

• HOW FIRMS COPE WITH CRIME AND VIOLENCE: EXPERIENCES FROM AROUND THE WORLD

  • Date: April 23, 2014
  • Time: 1:00 p.m. - 3:00 p.m.
  • Location: CSIS, 1616 Rhode Island Ave., NW

• U.S. AIR FORCE ENGAGEMENT IN THE ASIA PACIFIC

  • Featuring General Herbert "Hawk" Carlisle, Commander, Pacific Air Forces
  • Date: May 5, 2014
  • Time: 11:15 a.m. - 12:15 p.m.
  • Location: CSIS, 1616 Rhode Island Ave., NW

• PONI 2014 SUMMER CONFERENCE

  • Date: June 3-4, 2014
  • Location: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California

Recent Events

• ARE PAKISTAN'S ECONOMIC POLICIES PUTTING IT ON A PATH TO STABILITY?

  • Hosted a panel discussion on Pakistan's economic reform initiatives, moderated by Robert Lamb.

• CREATING A LEGACY FOR THE NUCLEAR SECURITY SUMMIT

  • Featured a panel on the outcomes of the March 2014 Nuclear Security Summit in The Hague.

• MILITARY STRATEGY FORUM: THE FUTURE OF THE U.S. AIR FORCE

  • Included a discussion with General Mark Welsh, Chief of Staff of the Air Force.

• IS NUCLEAR WEAPONS MODERNIZATION AFFORDABLE?

  • Analyzed the cost and affordability of nuclear modernization, written by Clark Murdock.

Key Topics and Analysis

Nuclear Modernization Affordability

• The Obama administration and Senate Republicans reached a deal on New START ratification in 2010, which tied the treaty to nuclear modernization funding.
• Despite the U.S. spending $34 billion on nuclear forces in 2011 (more than all other nuclear powers combined), modernization remains a costly endeavor.
• A replacement for the Ohio-class submarine could cost $6 billion, which is comparable to a 1% decrease in military retirees' pensions.
• The Budget Control Act of 2011 imposed significant defense budget cuts, raising questions about the affordability of nuclear modernization in a constrained fiscal environment.

Development Assistance and Conflict

• Robert Lamb discusses how development assistance is less effective in conflict zones due to security risks and a lack of local understanding.
• A case study of Medellin, Colombia, shows that local businesses found adaptive strategies to cope with violence, such as relocation, private security, and negotiation with armed actors.
• Successful development assistance requires building on local solutions rather than imposing external ones.

Moore's Law and Technological Limits

• Scott Aughenbaugh explores the potential end of Moore's Law, which predicted the doubling of computer power every two years.
• The law may cease due to physical and economic limitations in chip production.
• Increasing silicon wafer size from 300mm to 450mm, combined with advanced lithography, could help sustain Moore's Law temporarily.
• However, the cost of new fabrication facilities is extremely high, and the transition may take over a decade.

Impact of Sequestration on DoD Contracting

• Jesse Ellman analyzes the effects of sequestration on DoD contracting, using FY2013 data from the Federal Procurement Data System (FPDS).
• Overall DoD contract obligations declined by 16% from 2012 to 2013, the largest one-year drop since 2000.
• The decline was more severe than previous years, with R&D contracts dropping by 21%.
• The study highlights the need to understand trends in contract competition, pricing, and the impact on the industrial base.

Multimedia Highlights

• The Launch of the Global Youth Wellbeing Index: A panel discussion hosted by the CSIS Project on Prosperity and Development.
• Afghanistan Elections: What Comes Next?: Featuring assessments of the recent election and its implications.
• FY2015 Homeland Security Budget Request: A podcast interview with Adam Isles on the budget request.

Publications

• The State of U.S. Power: A discussion on global perceptions of U.S. leadership.
• Exploring New Ways to Provide Enduring Strategic Effects for the Department of Defense: A report by Clark Murdock and Sam Brannen on new approaches to military power.
• Nuclear Notes: Volume 4: A publication from the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues, covering various nuclear topics.

CSIS Critical Questions

• Outcomes from the 2014 Nuclear Security Summit: Analyzed by Sharon Squassoni.
• Turkish Shootdown of Syrian Fighter Jet: Explored by Sam Brannen.

Conclusion

This issue of FYSA emphasizes the importance of situational awareness in understanding global security, economic, and technological trends. It underscores the need for adaptable strategies in development assistance, the ongoing debate over nuclear modernization, and the potential end of Moore's Law, which has significant implications for future technological and military advancements.