英文_高盛_中国房地产周度综述_第21周综述-交易和市场情绪稳定；出口导向型城市表现持续优异_20页_2mb

报告摘要

Transaction Stability: Market sentiment remains largely stable, with transaction volumes showing positive growth in export-reliant cities compared to others. Primary market volumes rose by +9% week-over-week (wow) with a +3% year-over-year (yoy) increase, while secondary transactions grew +3% wow and +4% yoy.
Export-Centric Cities Performance: Export-focused cities continued to outperform, driven by broader recovery efforts, including regulatory support and policy easing. Visitor traffic and secondary sales improved moderately, though listings tightened, indicating selective market activity.
Policy Developments: Central authorities announced enhanced fiscal incentives, such as tax exemptions for export-participating entities, and allocated funds for urban renewal projects to streamline financing and reduce inventory risks.
Inventory Levels: Inventory balance decreased slightly, with a rolling inventory months ratio of 26.1, below end-2024 levels. Tier 1 cities showed slight declines in inventory, while others varied by region.
Valuation Trends: Equity prices for covered developers declined week-over-week, with offshore firms averaging -3% and onshore -4%, reflecting cautious market sentiment. Valuations remain discounted relative to net asset value (NAV) and sales prices, with potential for normalization as the second half of 2025 progresses.

Primary Markets: Volume decreased marginally (-1% wow), but tier 1 cities and Central & Western regions outperformed. Year-to-date (YTD) volumes showed minimal growth (+1% yoy) with significant inter-city variations.
Secondary Markets: Transactions increased modestly (+3% wow vs. +4% yoy), with price expectations stabilizing after recent policy announcements.

Policies include increased fiscal support for export firms, tax incentives, and dedicated funding for urban renewal. NDRC confirmed a 2025 budget allocation, aiming to boost city-renovation initiatives.

Presales for top developers are projected to decline significantly in May 2025 y-o-y. Completions and new starts are expected to drop y-o-y at high single-digit levels, reflecting slow buyer demand.

P/B ratios for listed developers hit low levels, with offshore firms showing better resilience. Market anticipates declining input costs (e.g., cement), which could moderate prices further in the coming period.