战略与国际研究中心-Trends-in-the-Nuclear-Balance_19页_99kb

Summary of Trends in the Nuclear Balance

Core Content

This document provides a comparative analysis of the nuclear capabilities of the United States, Russia, Ukraine, France, the United Kingdom, China, and North Korea as of January 1, 1999. It outlines the declared and deployed strategic nuclear forces, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and bombers, along with their associated warheads. The report also includes an overview of China's and North Korea's missile programs and developments.

Key Information

United States, Russia, and Ukraine Strategic Nuclear Forces

• Total declared nuclear weapons:

  • US: 10,500
  • Russia: 62,500
  • Ukraine: 1,600 (after the dissolution of the Soviet Union)

• Strategic Nuclear Triad:

  • Sea-Based: US has a significant presence with 18 SSBNs and 432 SLBMs; Russia has 26 SSBNs and 412 SLBMs; Ukraine has no sea-based systems.
  • Land-Based: US has 590 Minuteman III ICBMs; Russia has 180 SS-18 ICBMs and 188 SS-19 ICBMs; Ukraine has 160 SS-24 ICBMs and 64 SS-18 ICBMs.
  • Air Force: US has 179 active bombers (including 66 B-52H and 95 B-1B); Russia has 66 active bombers (including 28 Tu-95H6 and 6 Tu-160).

• Deployed Strategic Nuclear Forces:

  • US and Russia both have extensive land and air-based systems, with Russia maintaining a larger arsenal.

• ICBMs:

  • US: 590 Minuteman III
  • Russia: 180 SS-18, 188 SS-19, 168 SS-24, and 36 SS-25
  • Ukraine: 160 SS-24, 64 SS-18

• SLBMs:

  • US: 432 SLBMs (Trident D-5)
  • Russia: 192 SLBMs (Trident C-4) and 240 SLBMs (Trident D-5)
  • Ukraine: 0

• Bombers:

  • US: 179 active bombers (including 66 B-52H and 95 B-1B)
  • Russia: 66 active bombers (including 28 Tu-95H6 and 6 Tu-160)

• Warheads:

  • US and Russia have a large number of warheads, with Russia significantly surpassing the US.

China's Nuclear-Capable Delivery Systems

• Total estimated nuclear weapons: 500-1,300

• ICBMs:

  • DF-4 (CCS-3): 10-25 deployed, range over 5,500 km, warhead 2,200 kg, CEP 1,370 m, land-mobile, liquid fuel, in service
  • DF-31: Not deployed, range 8,000 km, warhead 700 kg, solid fuel, after 2000
  • DF-41: Not deployed, range 12,000 km, warhead 800 kg, solid fuel, after 2010

• MRBMs:

  • DF-21 (CSS-5): 10 deployed, range 1,800 km, warhead 600 kg, solid fuel, in service
  • DF-25: Not deployed, range unknown, warhead 1,700 kg, solid fuel, after 2000

• SRBMs:

  • DF-15 (CSS-6): 4+ deployed, range 600 km, warhead 500 kg, solid fuel, in service
  • DF-11 (CSS-7): Unknown number deployed, range 300 km, warhead 500 kg, solid fuel, in service
  • 8610 (CSS-8): Unknown number deployed, range 150 km, warhead 190 kg, solid fuel, in service

• SLBMs:

  • JL-1 (CSS-N-3): 12 deployed, range 1,700 km, warhead 600 kg, solid fuel, in service
  • JL-2: Not deployed, range 8,000 km, warhead 700 kg, solid fuel, after 2005

North Korea's Missile Programs and Developments

• SRBMs:

  • Hawsong 5/Scud B: Range 302-340 km, warhead 1,000 kg, liquid fuel, in service
  • Hwasong 6/Scud C: Range 500 km, warhead 770 kg, liquid fuel, in service

• MRBMs:

  • No Dong 1/Rodong 1/Scud D: Range 1,350 km, warhead 1,200 kg, liquid fuel, in service
  • First test in May 1993, range did not exceed 500 km; sold to Iran and Syria

• IRBMs:

  • Taepo-Dong 1/No-Dong 2: Range 1,500-2,200 km, warhead 700-1,000 kg, liquid fuel, in service
  • Some reports suggest similarity to Chinese DF-3

• SLVs:

  • Taepo-Dong 1: Range 4,000 km, warhead 50-100 kg, solid fuel, partially successful test in August 1998

• ICBMs:

  • Taepo-Dong 2/No Dong 3: Range 4,000-6,000 km, warhead 700-1,000 kg, solid fuel, in service
  • Estimated 50-100 missiles produced

Main Views

• The nuclear arsenals of the US, Russia, and Ukraine are well-established, with Russia maintaining the largest stockpile.
• China's nuclear delivery systems are less advanced compared to the US and Russia, with a focus on land-based ICBMs and SRBMs.
• North Korea's missile program is growing and shows potential for developing longer-range systems, including ICBMs, with some tests indicating progress.
• The document highlights the importance of strategic nuclear triads (land, sea, air) in maintaining nuclear deterrence.
• The data includes both declared and deployed systems, emphasizing the complexity of nuclear force management and the need for accurate reporting.

Conclusion

The report provides a detailed snapshot of the nuclear balance among major nuclear powers in 1999, focusing on the number and type of weapons, their delivery systems, and their strategic implications. It underscores the continued dominance of the US and Russia in nuclear capabilities, while noting China's gradual development and North Korea's emerging threat. The data is crucial for understanding the geopolitical landscape of nuclear weapons during that period.