2025-06-11-Jefferies-5月人员配置临时检查（RHI_MAN）_Indeed招聘职位数量下降6_23页_2mb

Staffing Industry Analysis Summary

US Recruitment Trends

• RHI & MAN Employers of Record (EoR): Job postings rose 53% YoY for RHI and 30%YoY for MAN, but remain 75% and 46% below long-term averages, respectively.
• Seasonal vs. Non-seasonal Job Postings: Indeed US job listings average 6% YoY lower in May (seasonal), reflecting weak hiring demand despite slight improvement in QTD (-7% YoY).
• Correlation with Revenue: RHI's revenue is highly correlated (-0.9) with Indeed job listings; MAN US revenue is less correlated (0.9) with its listings.

US Economic Indicators

• Payrolls: Nonfarm payrolls +139k vs. consensus 126k; average hourly earnings +0.4% MoM, slightly above expectations.
• Uncertainty: NFIB Optimism Index at 98.8 (9% YoY higher but down 3% MoM). ISM Manufacturing PMI at 46.8 (just below expansion threshold), suggesting weak demand.
• Temps Decline: US temporary growth YoY -8% (July 2023 trough -8.1%, decelerating MoM).
• Sector Changes: Utilities saw growth MoM, contrasting with minor declines in Mining & Logging.

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Staffing Valuations

• Market Performance: Staffing stocks (-18% YoY) underperform the broader market by 21% YoY.
• P/E Multiples: MAN’s current EV/Sales (0.43x) below 15-yr avg; RHI is 60% below its historical average.
• Price Targets & Risks:
  • ASGN: $53 PT (HOLD), risks include cyclical pressures, talent loss.
  • RHI: 50% below prior cycle avg, risks include macro uncertainty, expenses.
  • MAN: HOLD rating, EV/Sales 0.43x vs. 0.45x (cyclical concerns).
  • RAND: BUY (€45 PT), improved revenue/EBIT margin but elevated EV/EBIT (1.2x).

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Key Takeaways:

-录用趋势: RHI和MAN的招聘职位发布量同比和环比有所增长，但仍远低于历史水平。美国Indeed平台的职位发布数量季节性下降。

-经济指标：非农新增就业超预期，但暂时用工人数收缩；ISM制造业指数仍低于扩张线。

-估值：外部招聘公司估值处于历史低位，部分公司P/E比率与历史水平有较大差距。

-风险因素：存在经济衰退、招聘成本上升和技能短缺等风险。