2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Canada_Selected_Issues_60页_1mb

报告摘要

2012 Article IV Consultation: Selected Issues for Canada

Core Content

This document is part of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) 2012 Article IV Consultation on Canada, focusing on three main issues: the impact of high household debt on economic volatility, the potential excess supply of housing, and the effectiveness of macro-prudential tools in Canada.

I. Assessing the Impact of High Household Debt on Economic Volatility in Canada

Main Points

Household Debt and Economic Volatility: There is a strong empirical link between household debt levels and consumption volatility. Higher household debt tends to amplify the effects of adverse shocks on the economy, such as housing price declines or external demand shocks.
Model Simulations: A macroeconomic model of the Canadian economy with different levels of household debt is used to simulate the effects of shocks. The results show that in a high-debt scenario, consumption and residential investment fall more sharply than in a low-debt scenario.
Key Findings:
- A 10% decline in house prices leads to a 2 percentage point (pp) drop in consumption growth in a high-debt economy, compared to a 0.75 pp drop in a low-debt economy.
- A negative foreign demand shock (10% decline in real exports) causes a 1.5 pp drop in consumption and a 3.5 pp drop in residential investment in a high-debt economy.
- The model incorporates housing market variables and mortgage debt, showing that higher leverage increases vulnerability to economic shocks.

II. Is There an Excess Supply of Housing in Canada?

Main Points

Residential Investment Trends: Canadian residential investment recovered quickly from the 2008-09 recession and reached 7% of GDP by Q3:2012, which is well above its historical average.
Housing Stock Growth: The housing stock in Canada more than doubled since the 1970s, with Alberta and British Columbia experiencing the largest growth. Smaller provinces saw a decline in their share of the total stock.
Overbuilding Analysis: The cumulative supply of new housing units has outpaced demographic demand by about 10% over the last decade.
Vacancy Ratio: As of Q3:2012, the vacancy ratio (unoccupied units as a share of total housing stock) is at 1.5% above the level consistent with economic fundamentals.
Model-Based Estimation: An empirical model of the housing stock is estimated using variables such as household formation, construction costs, mortgage rates, and real house price growth. The model suggests an excess supply of around 200,000 units in the 1992-2011 period, rising to 400,000 units in 2002-2012.
Conclusion: Canada experienced overbuilding between 2002 and 2008, but the excess has declined to 1.5% as of Q3:2012.

III. Recent Experience with Macro-Prudential Tools in Canada

Main Points

Macro-Prudential Measures: Canada has implemented several macro-prudential measures, such as tightening mortgage insurance regulations and introducing micro-prudential tools.
Effectiveness: These measures have been effective in curbing mortgage credit growth and reducing house price volatility.
Key Findings:
- The first three rounds of tightening macro-prudential measures had a significant impact on reducing mortgage credit growth.
- House price growth was more volatile in high-leverage scenarios, suggesting that macro-prudential tools can help stabilize the housing market.
- The effectiveness of these tools is supported by both empirical studies and model simulations.

IV. Canada's Loss of External Competitiveness: The Role of Commodity Prices and the Emergence of China

Main Points

Export Dynamics: Canadian exports have faced challenges due to the global economic slowdown and the emergence of China as a major trading partner.
Exchange Rate and Commodity Prices: The exchange rate and commodity prices are key factors in Canada's external competitiveness.
Loss of Market Shares: Canada's market share in the U.S. non-energy import market has declined, particularly in manufacturing.
Conclusion: The loss of external competitiveness is partly attributed to the decline in commodity prices and the shift in trade patterns due to the rise of China.

Key Information

Household Debt: The household debt-to-income ratio in Canada was estimated to be overvalued by about 10% by end-2012.
Macro-Prudential Tools: These tools have been used to manage risks in the housing market, with varying degrees of success.
Housing Stock: The housing stock has grown significantly, leading to concerns about overbuilding.
Model Simulations: The model suggests that higher household leverage increases the vulnerability of the economy to shocks.
Empirical Evidence: Studies show that higher household debt is associated with greater consumption volatility and more severe recessions.