斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所-South-Asia-s-Nuclear-Challenges--Interlocking-Views-from-India-Pakistan-China-Russia-and-the-United-States_40页_447kb

报告摘要

SOUTH ASIA'S NUCLEAR CHALLENGES: SUMMARY

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of nuclear postures and escalation dynamics in South Asia based on 119 unattributed interviews with military, nuclear, political and regional experts from India, Pakistan, China, Russia and the United States conducted in 2020. The study highlights the complex interplay of nuclear strategies and the potential for escalation among the five countries, emphasizing the need for more comprehensive and flexible engagement to enhance transparency and stability in the region.

Main Points

Nuclear Posture in South Asia

India and Pakistan: Both countries emphasize "no first use" (NFU) policies and credible minimum deterrence. Indian experts believe that these shared postures contribute to stability, although there are concerns about ambiguities in NFU commitments, especially with regard to China and Pakistan.
China: Chinese experts view India's nuclear posture as a growing threat, particularly due to its nuclear triad development and the perceived lack of NFU clarity. They also highlight the impact of India's nuclear modernization on the region's strategic balance.
Russia and the United States: Russian and US experts see China and Pakistan as the main players in South Asian nuclear dynamics, with the US focusing on China's military and technological support to Pakistan, and Russia emphasizing its role in mediating between China and India.

Nuclear Escalation in South Asia

India: Experts believe nuclear escalation is unlikely due to the stabilizing effect of NFU and credible minimum deterrence. However, they acknowledge the risk of accidental or miscalculated use, especially in the context of territorial disputes and the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
Pakistan: Pakistani experts express concern over India's nuclear posture and its potential to lower the nuclear threshold. They also highlight the role of emerging technologies and the possibility of escalation through the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
China: Chinese experts suggest that the region's nuclear dynamics are influenced by the interplay between China, Pakistan, and the US, particularly through the use of low-yield nuclear weapons and the concept of "escalate to de-escalate."
Russia and the United States: Both countries highlight the importance of addressing nuclear dynamics through broader multilateral engagement, rather than focusing solely on India-Pakistan dyadic relations.

Key Information

Interviewees

India: 33 experts, including retired military personnel, officials from the National Security Council, and nuclear and policy analysts.
Pakistan: Experts from military, nuclear, and political backgrounds, including those involved in nuclear confidence-building and strategic planning.
China: Experts from the Chinese military and nuclear research institutions, with a focus on strategic technologies and nuclear policy.
Russia: Experts from the Russian military and diplomatic corps, emphasizing their role in regional stability.
United States: Experts from the US military and strategic policy institutes, including those from the Central and Pacific Commands.

Strategic Technologies

Hypersonic weapons: Seen as a significant threat to nuclear stability due to their speed and maneuverability.
Artificial Intelligence (AI): Considered a key emerging technology that could impact command and control systems.
Autonomy and cyber operations: Highlighted as factors that could reduce the time for decision-making and increase the risk of escalation.
Anti-satellite (ASAT) and ballistic missile defense (BMD): Discussed as tools that could alter the deterrence landscape.

Escalatory Events

India-Pakistan tensions: Including the 2001 Parliament attack, 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2016 Uri attack, and 2019 Pulwama and Balakot strikes.
China-India border standoffs: Including the 2017 Doklam stand-off and the 2020 Galwan River Valley skirmishes.
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC): Seen as a strategic asset that enhances China's influence over Pakistan.

Main Findings

India and Pakistan: While both countries have NFU policies, there are concerns about the potential for escalation due to the lowering of nuclear thresholds and the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
China and India: Experts from both countries believe that their shared NFU policies and strategic postures contribute to stability, although there are tensions over the interpretation and implementation of these policies.
China and the United States: The US sees China as a destabilizing force in South Asia, particularly through its support of Pakistan. China, in turn, views the US as a major threat to its strategic interests in the region.
India and the United States: Despite shared concerns about China's influence on Pakistan, there is limited official dialogue on nuclear issues between the two countries.
Pakistan, Russia and the United States: Experts from China and the US note the similarities between Pakistan and Russia in their use of "escalate to de-escalate" strategies, suggesting the potential for broader regional engagement.

Conclusion

The report concludes that a more comprehensive and flexible engagement among India, Pakistan, China, Russia and the United States is essential for addressing nuclear challenges in South Asia. This includes exploring bilateral, trilateral and multilateral interactions to enhance transparency and understanding of nuclear postures and escalation trends. The findings suggest that while India-Pakistan dynamics remain central, the influence of China and the US on regional nuclear stability cannot be ignored.

Appendices

Appendix A: Nuclear postures featured during interviews.
Appendix B: Strategic technologies featured during interviews.
Appendix C: Escalatory events featured during interviews.

References

NFU: No First Use
NPT: Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
BRI: Belt and Road Initiative
Quad: Quadrilateral Security Dialogue
A2/AD: Anti-Access/Area Denial
AI: Artificial Intelligence
HGV: Hypersonic Glide Vehicle
MIRV: Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle
SRBM: Short-Range Ballistic Missile
MRBM: Medium-Range Ballistic Missile
IRBM: Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile
BMD: Ballistic Missile Defense
ASAT: Anti-Satellite
WMD: Weapons of Mass Destruction
SSBN: Nuclear-Powered Ballistic Missile Submarine
SLBM: Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile
LOC: Line of Control
USCENTCOM: United States Central Command
USPACOM: United States Pacific Command
PLA: People's Liberation Army
DF-17: Medium-Range Ballistic Missile
Wu-14: Hypersonic Glide Vehicle
ALCM: Air-Launched Cruise Missile
Tactical Nuclear Weapons: Seen as a potential trigger for escalation.
Credible Minimum Deterrence: A key concept in both India and Pakistan's nuclear strategy.
Escalate to De-escalate: A strategy used by both Pakistan and Russia to manage crises through nuclear threats.

Summary of Key Concerns

Nuclear Thresholds: Experts from all five countries agree that the nuclear threshold in South Asia is lowering.
Technological Developments: Emerging technologies such as hypersonic weapons, AI, and cyber capabilities are reshaping the deterrence landscape.
Strategic Parity: The assumption of strategic parity between China and India is seen as a stabilizing factor, although it may lead to misinterpretations.
Regional Dynamics: The interplay between China and Pakistan is a key concern, with the US and Russia playing mediating roles.
Need for Engagement: The report emphasizes the need for more inclusive and comprehensive engagement to address nuclear challenges and improve crisis stability in the region.

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