2025-06-14-高盛-美洲公用事业_对加州潜在立法（关注客户负担能力）的股价反应过度；回调后更青睐PCG_10页_412kb

Americas Utilities: Focus on California Legislation Impact

1. Key Findings

• California utility stocks (PCG, EIX, SRE) experienced significant pullbacks in the past week due to concerns over Senate Bill 254 (SB 254), which focuses on customer affordability and wildfire mitigation funding.
  • PCG shares fell 10%, EIX declined 13%, and SRE dropped 3%.
  • Regulated peers (XLU) and broad market (SP500) underperformed but remained relatively stable.

2. SB 254 Details

• Proposes $5B wildfire mitigation and $10B energization funding funded via securitized bonds (excluded from rate base).
• Key concerns:
  • Utility earnings may be impacted if securitization proceeds; PCG estimates a $0.06 impact in 2026.
  • Wildfire capital expenditure disallowance risks for utilities.

3. Analyst Recommendations

• PCG: Reiterated "Buy" based on:
  • Manageable earnings impact from securitization.
  • Focus on customer affordability (flat bills until 2027).
  • 46% discount to FY2 P/E vs. historical averages.
• EIX: "Neutral" rating due to risks:
  • High discount (53% vs FY2 P/E), but heightened uncertainty from SB 254 and wildfires.
  • Potential regulatory challenges if wildfire costs exceed projected COFAs.

4. Valuation Context

• Both PCG and EIX trade at significant discounts compared to their regulated peers and historical levels:
  • PCG: 46% discount to FY2 P/E (pre-2017 wildfires, average discount was 34%).
  • EIX: 53% discount to FY2 P/E (historically lower discount during 2017-2018).

5. Key Risks

• PCG: Wildfire exposure, regulatory outcomes, cost management.
• EIX: Wildfire risks, unfavorable GRC decisions, electrification risks, cost management.
• Overall: SB 254 is still early in the legislative process; bills may be revised before final passage.

Conclusion: Despite the selloff, PCG remains a "Buy" candidate due to its affordability focus and valuation, while EIX warrants a "Neutral" stance due to elevated risks. Sanitized valuation multiples are deep, but market concerns over legislation financing and wildfire liabilities persist.