20260331-招银国际-Fixed_Income_Daily_Market_Update_8页_813kb

CMBI Credit Commentary Summary

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the fixed income market activities and credit commentary for the week of 2M26, focusing on key issues, market movements, and macroeconomic updates.

Main Market Updates

• New Issues and Price Movements:

  • NIPLIF 31-33 tightened by 1-2bps.
  • ZHOSHK 28 recovered 0.5pt.
  • HSBC 6.75 Perp and HSBC 7 Perp edged 0.1-0.3pt higher.
  • Better buying was observed on 2yr-to-call perps and AT1s from AMs.
  • Fosun launched a tender offer for FOSUNI 5 05/18/26 at par.
  • FOSUNI 28-29 were 0.2-0.4pt higher.
  • EHICAR 27 was 0.2pt higher this morning.
  • EHICAR's exchange offer deadline was extended to 9 Apr'26 from 30 Mar'26.
  • The tendered amount for EHICAR 7 09/21/26 was USD166.6mn, which is below the minimum acceptance level of 85% (USD226.1mn).
  • The tendered amount surpassed the 50% threshold for exit consent solicitation.
  • The new 3.5yr bond will have a customary high yield covenant package.
  • Fosun's credit profile is improving due to continued asset disposals and active liability management.
  • Fosun's next major maturity is FOSUNI 3.95 10/02/26 of EUR236.1mn.
  • Fosun's revenue fell 9.7% yoy to RMB173.4bn in FY25, with a widened loss to RMB22.7bn.
  • Fosun holds RMB60.5bn in cash and cash equivalents compared to RMB104.2bn in short-term debt.

• Chinese Properties:

  • Contracted sales for Chinese developers dropped 29.0% yoy in 2M26 to RMB155.0bn.
  • In Feb'26, contracted sales fell 38.0% yoy to RMB66.4bn, with only 2 out of 30 developers reporting yoy growth.
  • CHJMAO was the sole outperformer, with contracted sales growth of 16% yoy to RMB12.9bn.
  • REDSUN/HONGSL, YLLGSP, and GEMDAL saw significant declines in contracted sales, down 79%, 75%, and 63% yoy, respectively.
  • Chinese authorities emphasized city-specific measures for real estate stabilization, not a nationwide bailout.
  • First-time homebuyers in eligible cities can now use housing provident fund balances for home purchases.
  • New home prices fell 0.3% mom in Feb'26, reversing the 0.2% mom increase in Jan'26.
  • CMBI expects a 10bps cut in LPR by the end of 2Q26 to support the housing market.
  • Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may delay LPR cuts by increasing inflationary pressures.

Key Market Movements

Key News and Market Color

• Macro News:

  • S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq were mixed on Monday.
  • U.S. Treasury yields were lower, with 2/5/10/30 year yields at 3.82%, 3.97%, 4.35%, and 4.91%, respectively.

• Other News:

  • Lai Sun Development plans to repay 20% of LASUDE 26 upfront and extend the maturity of the remaining 80%.
  • Lai Sun is yet to close the sale of its 50% stake in CCB Tower to JD.com.
  • Vedanta Limited approached India's Supreme Court against Adani Group's resolution plan for Jaiprakash Associates.
  • Woodside Energy Group's LNG production in Western Australia was disrupted by tropical cyclone Narelle.
  • S&P affirmed West China Cement's B+ rating with a stable outlook.

Analyst Comments

• EHICAR:

  • The exchange offer for EHICAR 7 09/21/26 has a minimum acceptance threshold of 85%.
  • The tendered amount was 62.62% of the outstanding principal as of 30 Mar'26, which is below the minimum threshold.
  • The company may consider interim measures if the tendered amount falls short.
  • The new 3.5yr bond will have a coupon of 10% and an amortization schedule.

• FOSUNI:

  • Fosun launched a tender offer for FOSUNI 5 05/18/26 at par.
  • Fosun has a successful refinancing history, including repurchases of other FOSUNI issues.
  • The next major maturity is FOSUNI 3.95 10/02/26 of EUR236.1mn.
  • The assistant maintains a buy recommendation on FOSUNI 8.5 05/19/28 due to its better risk-adjusted return profile.

Important Disclosures

• The report is prepared for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
• CMBIGM is not liable for any losses or damages resulting from reliance on the report.
• The information is based on publicly available data and may not be accurate or complete.
• The report is for the use of intended recipients only and may not be reproduced or distributed without prior written consent.
• The report is subject to change and may have different conclusions from other publications.