英文_高盛_Fortescue_Metals_Group_FMG.AX_-_铁桥项目名称推迟至2028财年_产能扩张与GSe保持一致_工艺流程成焦点；中性_11页_833kb

Summary of Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) Iron Bridge Magnetite Project

• Ramp-Up Update: FMG delayed Iron Bridge ramp-up by 18-24 months due to operational challenges, now targeting 22Mtpa nameplate capacity by FY28. Expected shipments: 10-12Mt in FY26, ramping to 16-20Mtpa by H2 FY27, with further optimization needed.

• Production Profile: In-line with assumptions, but model max production at 18Mtpa (10% below consensus). Production staged, with no revision to FY25 guidance.

• Technical Risks: Air classifiers highlighted as unique and risky technology; plant designs include dry (HPGRs, dry screening) and wet circuits, with ongoing tests for equipment reliability and capacity issues, including water supply constraints and pipeline repairs.

• Financials and Valuation: EBITDA estimates unchanged; project valued at US$2bn (5% of FMG NAV). Investment rating remains Neutral due to relative valuation (trading at ~0.9x NAV), low-grade product realizations staying supported, ramp-up execution risks, and higher capex for decarbonization.

• Outlook: Risks include water availability, processing equipment performance (air classifiers), and lingering execution uncertainties. Capex expected to stay elevated, with potential dividend reduction starting FY26.