2025-05-19-Jefferies-街头传闻-上周重点ACHC_ASTH_MCK_RDNT和THC_8页_247kb

Healthcare Services Equity Research Summary

Market Performance Overview

US Healthcare (HC) services stocks underperformed the broader markets, with sub-sector averages lagging. Year-to-date, Medical Equipment & Med Device Svcs performed poorly, while Post-Acute Care led gains. Compared to the S&P 500's +5.3% move, HC Svcs stocks showed average declines, particularly in Value-Based Care.

Post-Earnings Analysis

• TC NOearnings: Feedback highlighted challenges in bridging EBITDA for 2Q/2025, with TN SDP payments as a potential driver. ACHC beat Q1 guidance but needs to sustain performance.
• Key topics include ASTH's strategic priorities (Prospect acquisition, MA opportunities), MCK's planned Medical segment separation for improved stability, RDNT's strong core imaging and AI growth amid guidance beats, and THC's hospital sector rally due to favorable MCO news and spending cuts.

D.C. News Update

The House unveiled draft text for healthcare spending cuts, which eased concerns as compromises included delaying Medicaid implementation. Despite failed initial votes, the bill advances, with potential changes next week.

Company-Specific Insights

• ACHC: Focus on EBITDA guidance, TN SDP payment likelihood.
• ASTH: On clinical visit; priorities: Prospect timing, MA expansion, market maturation.
• MCK: Separation of Medical segment viewed positively, leveraging thematic trends.
• RDNT: Beat guidance due to imaging trends and AI valuation; strong buy recommendation.
• THC: Rally driven by spending cuts; emphasis on valuation and FCF for outpatient services.

Valuation and Recommendations

• Jefferies Ratings: Company picks include Buys for ACHC, ASTH, RDNT, THC, etc., with Holds and Underperforms based on fundamentals. Valuation ranges from 9x EBITDA to YTD price declines.
• Market Performance Data Included: Key ratings and ratios; stocks vary widely.

Key Risks and Considerations

• Conflicts of interest due to business relationships and client engagements with companies covered.
• Regulatory and political risks, such as healthcare spending cuts from D.C.; investments may not be suitable for all.
• Past performance may not predict future results; value fluctuations depend on factors like payor actions, weather, and AI growth.