2024-01-02-世界银行-2023年世界移民与发展简报_62页_1mb

1. Overview of the Report

The report "Leveraging Diaspora Finances for Private Capital Mobilization" examines trends in remittance flows, global migration, and strategies to mobilize diaspora savings for development and debt sustainability in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). It highlights remittances as a critical source of external finance, exceeding foreign direct investment and official development assistance in 2023, and discusses methods like nonresident deposits and diaspora bonds to harness diaspora finances. The analysis also includes regional trends and outlooks influenced by economic factors such as labor markets and exchange rate policies.

2. Key Findings on Remittance Trends

• Remittances to LMICs reached $669 billion in 2023, with a 3.8% growth, slowing from previous years due to global economic conditions and host country policies.
• Latin America and South Asia experienced higher growth (8% and 7.2%, respectively) driven by resilient labor markets in OECD countries and Gulf Cooperation Council nations.
• Sub-Saharan Africa and Europe and Central Asia saw moderate or declining growth (1.9% and -1.4%, respectively), affected by economic downturns and currency devaluation.
• Average remittance costs remain high (6.2% for $200 in Q2 2023), with Sub-Saharan Africa being the most expensive region and South Asia the least.

3. Leveraging Diaspora Finances

• Nonresident Deposits: Many countries, like India and Sri Lanka, use deposit schemes to attract diaspora savings. However, these are short-term and volatile, making them unsuitable for long-term development financing.
• Diaspora Bonds: These instruments can access cheaper financing from diaspora members but have faced challenges in some countries due to political opposition, high interest rates, or lack of appropriate financial structures. Successful cases include Israel, India, and Nigeria, but implementation requires careful design, consulting diaspora groups, and multilateral guarantees.
• Indirect Leveraging: Remittances can improve creditworthiness and debt sustainability by providing stable foreign exchange, countercyclical flows, and indirect contributions to public finances. Including remittances in debt-to-export ratios can enhance sovereign ratings.

4. Regional Insights

• East Asia and Pacific: Remittances grew 3%, with countries like India and the Philippines leading by a large margin. Cost reductions and digitalization support growth, but economic factors like trade policies and currency risks pose risks.
• Europe and Central Asia: Growth slipped to -1.4% amid the Russia-Ukraine war's normalization and high base effects; remittances remain vital despite challenges from sanctions.
• Latin America and the Caribbean: Growth at 8% in 2023, boosted by U.S. labor market strength, but risks include transit migration and global slowdown. Costs remain moderate but vary by corridor.
• Middle East and North Africa: Remittances declined 5.3% in 2023 due to informal channels and economic instability, but some countries like Morocco saw growth.
• South Asia: Remittances surged to $189 billion in 2023, largely due to India, with regional growth moderating to 7.2% amid host country conditions.
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Growth flat at 1.9% in 2023, driven by countries like Rwanda and Ethiopia; high costs and capital controls divert flows to informal channels.

Conclusion

Diaspora finances offer significant potential for mobilizing private capital, particularly in sub-investment-grade countries. While remittances are a stable source of external finance, leveraging diaspora savings through deposits and bonds requires addressing barriers like exchange rate gaps and political opposition. Continued efforts in data improvement and financial inclusion can enhance impacts.