战略与国际研究中心-Unmanned-Aerial-Systems-Influences-on-Conflict-Escalation-Dynamics_2页_296kb

Summary of the Impact of Unmanned Systems on Escalation Dynamics

Core Content

The document explores how the increasing use of unmanned systems in the maritime domain is affecting escalation dynamics between states, particularly in the context of shaping and deterrence operations. It highlights the potential for both intentional and unintentional escalation due to the unique characteristics of unmanned systems, which differ from manned systems in key ways. The U.S. Navy is at the forefront of both employing and encountering these systems, and the lack of established norms and clear policies poses significant challenges.

Main Points

1. Key Distinctions Between Unmanned and Manned Systems

• Concept of Employment: Unmanned systems rely on remote communication, automation, and autonomy.
• Value and Risk Assessment: The absence of personnel affects how systems are valued, influencing risk tolerance, protection, and counteraction.
• Novel Capabilities: Unmanned systems are not constrained by biological limitations, enabling new missions and covert operations.

2. Impact on Escalation Dynamics

• Deliberate Escalation
  Unmanned systems offer new options for escalatory actions. With no direct risk to personnel, actors may be more willing to take such actions.

• Inadvertent Escalation
  Ambiguity in escalation thresholds and the lack of established norms for unmanned systems can lead to unintended escalation. For example, in 2016, China captured a U.S. unmanned undersea vehicle, which the U.S. viewed as a sovereign immune vessel, highlighting the lack of consensus on how to treat these systems.

• Accidental Escalation
  Reliability concerns with unmanned systems, especially those operated remotely or autonomously, can result in accidental actions that cross escalation thresholds. Manned forces may also struggle to respond appropriately due to outdated or unclear tactical guidance.

• Internal Coordination and Communication Errors
  Poor internal communication and coordination can lead to tactical actions that misalign with strategic intentions, increasing the risk of unintended escalation. Autonomous systems may require new methods to interpret commander's intent, which are not yet fully developed.

• Escalatory Consequence Consideration
  Unmanned systems may lead to either increased or decreased consideration of escalation consequences. Actors may be less cautious when using or countering them, or more patient in protecting them due to the lack of immediate risk.

• Provoking Escalatory Responses
  The likelihood of a counter-response depends on the visibility and attribution of unmanned systems. Undetected or unattributed systems may avoid escalation, while overt operations can provoke a response. The absence of human casualties may reduce pressure for retaliation, but the value of the system may still justify action.

Key Information

• The U.S. Navy is increasingly involved in operations with unmanned systems, but faces challenges due to the lack of established international norms and legal frameworks.
• Future U.S. military concepts assume freedom of action for unmanned systems, but this assumption may not be valid in the absence of clear international standards.
• CNA recommends a strategic, consistent approach to the development, employment, protection, and encounters of unmanned systems to shape desirable international norms.
• This includes clarifying the legal basis for their use, aligning operational guidance with desired standards, and ensuring that rules of engagement and pre-planned responses are updated to address the unique nature of unmanned systems.
• The U.S. must also prepare for the reality that international norms for unmanned systems are still immature and may differ from U.S. expectations.

CNA Center for Autonomy and AI

• The Center for Autonomy and AI at CNA focuses on the integration of autonomy and artificial intelligence into military capabilities.
• It leverages the expertise of over 700 scientists and analysts with experience in military operations, test and evaluation, security, intelligence, and technology.
• The Center supports the U.S. in addressing the strategic and operational implications of autonomy and AI in warfare, including the development of norms and policies for their use.

About CNA Corporation

• CNA is a not-for-profit research and analysis organization with 75 years of experience in providing data-driven insights and actionable solutions to government agencies.
• It has a strong track record in operational analysis, applied across defense, aviation, education, justice, and homeland security sectors.
• CNA is well-positioned to support the development of strategies and policies for the responsible use of unmanned systems and autonomy in military operations.

Contact Information

• Dr. Larry Lewis, Director, Center for Autonomy and AI
  Phone: 703-824-2020
  Email: Lewisl@cna.org

• Dr. Anna Williams, Research Scientist
  Phone: 703-824-2748
  Email: williamsa@cna.org