电力2025—分析和预测至2027_200页_6mb

Electricity 2025 Summary

Introduction

The IEA introduces the "New Age of Electricity," marked by strong global demand growth. The report highlights increasing electrification, especially in China, India, and Africa, with significant policy shifts like the East Energy Mix in China and the Deep Decarbonization Pathways launched by Japan, alongside challenges in grid reliability and flexibility across regions driven by variable renewables.

Demand Dynamics

• Global electricity demand is set to rise by an average of 3.9% annually through 2027, fueled by climate-driven cooling needs, economic growth, and electrification.
  • China: Record growth, with demand driven by electrification and energy-intensive manufacturing. Industrial sector growth (7% in 2024) will be the largest contributor, with solar, batteries, and EVs driving electrification.
  • India: Strong demand growth anticipated (6.3% annual average) due to economic expansion, rising AC ownership, and data center growth, though Africa lags significantly.
  • United States: Demand rebounds to 2% growth, driven by data centers, manufacturing, and electrification.

Supply Trends

• Renewable generation is set to grow by an average of 7.2% annually (reaching 47% of global generation by 2027).
  • Solar PV: Fastest-growing source (~26% annual growth), surpassing coal in the EU and becoming the second-largest source globally by 2027.
  • Nuclear: Strong recover in France and Japan, providing stable long-term capacity.
• Gas supply challenges and oil phase-out are key issues across regions.
• Grid expansion and flexibility mechanisms (storage, interconnectors) face increased importance due to variable renewable integration.

Emissions Trends

• Global power sector CO₂ emissions are forecast to peak moderately and decline by 0.1% annually from 2025, driven by clean energy expansion.
  • China: Moderate decline (0.2% average 2025-2027).
  • Europe: Sharp decline (-9% average 2025-2027).

Electricity Prices

• Wholesale prices declined globally on average in 2024 (-17% lowest prices in some markets driven by renewables growth).
• Price volatility and negative pricing occurrences (e.g., South Australia, U.S. PJM) increase, signaling grid flexibility challenges; favorable policies for storage and demand response emerge globally.

Regional Focus

• Asia Pacific: Rapid growth (5.2% annual), dominated by China. Wind and solar may each supply ~18% by 2023.
• Americas: Robust expansion (2.2% annual), driven by the U.S.; however, sub-regional stagnation noted.
• Europe: Slower demand growth (1.9% annual), but stable renewables expansion (10% average 2025-2027), alongside policy reforms for a competitive market.
• Eurasia: Moderate growth (1.9% annual), with significant coal phase-out in Russia.
• Middle East: Cuts oil use in power sector, increasing gas role (Saudi: goal from 45.5% to 73% electricity mix).

Annexes

Table: Regional and Country Groupings
Table: Summary Tables (Demand, Supply, Emissions by Region)
Table: Units of Measure
Table: Abbreviations and Acronyms