2024-01-18-世界卫生组织-COVID-19_epidemiological_update_–_19_January_2023_30页_2mb

Summary of the COVID-19 Epidemiological Update (Edition 163, 19 January 2024)

Core Content

This report provides an epidemiological update on the global status of COVID-19 as of 7 January 2024, covering key metrics such as case numbers, deaths, hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Main Points

Global Case and Death Trends

• New Cases: During the 28-day period from 11 December 2023 to 7 January 2024, 1.1 million new cases were reported, a 4% increase compared to the previous 28-day period.
• New Deaths: There were 8,700 new deaths, a 26% decrease compared to the previous 28-day period.
• Total Confirmed Cases: Over 774 million confirmed cases have been reported globally.
• Total Confirmed Deaths: Over 7 million deaths have been reported globally.
• Underreporting Concern: Clinical detection underestimates the real burden of the disease by 2 to 19-fold, due to reduced testing and sequencing.

PCR Positivity Rates

• The global SARS-CoV-2 PCR percent positivity was approximately 8% as of 7 January 2024, based on data from sentinel sites integrated into the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS).

Hospitalizations and ICU Admissions

• New Hospitalizations: 173,547 new hospitalizations were reported globally, a 40% increase compared to the previous 28 days.
• New ICU Admissions: 1,966 new ICU admissions were reported, a 13% increase compared to the previous 28 days.
• Regional Reporting:
  • Americas: 19 countries reported hospitalizations (34% of the region), with the US reporting the highest number (128,073).
  • Europe: 15 countries reported hospitalizations (25% of the region), with Malta, Greece, and Ireland showing significant increases.
  • Western Pacific: 5 countries reported hospitalizations (14% of the region), with Malaysia and Singapore showing substantial increases.
  • South-East Asia: 2 countries reported hospitalizations (20% of the region), with Indonesia reporting a massive increase (797%).
• ICU Admissions:
  • Americas: 10 countries reported ICU admissions (18% of the region), with Canada showing a significant decrease (-55%).
  • Europe: 12 countries reported ICU admissions (20% of the region), with Czechia, Netherlands, Greece, and Ireland showing increases.
  • Western Pacific: 6 countries reported ICU admissions (17% of the region), with Malaysia and Singapore showing large increases.
  • South-East Asia: 1 country (Indonesia) reported ICU admissions (10% of the region), with an increase of 811%.

SARS-CoV-2 Variants

• JN.1 is the most reported variant of interest (VOI), now reported by 71 countries, accounting for 65.5% of sequences in week 52.
• BA.2.86 (parent lineage of JN.1) is stable, accounting for 7.8% of sequences in week 52.
• Other VOIs: XBB.1.5, XBB.1.16, EG.5, and BA.2.86.
• VUMs: DV.7, XBB, XBB.1.9.1, XBB.1.9.2, and XBB.2.3.
• Risk Evaluation: Initial risk evaluation for JN.1 was published on 19 December 2023, with a low public health risk assessment at the global level.

WHO Dashboard Update

• The Global WHO Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard was updated on 22 December 2023 to support the transition from emergency to long-term disease management.
• The old dashboard will still be accessible and redirect to the new one starting from 22 December 2023.

Key Information

• Reporting Limitations: Many countries have reduced or stopped specific reporting, which affects the completeness of data. The reported numbers may not reflect the true global situation.
• Interpretation Caution: Trends in reported cases and deaths should be interpreted with care due to reporting delays and changes in testing strategies.
• Severity Indicators:
  • ICU-to-hospitalization ratio has decreased over time, from 0.26 in July 2021 to ~0.05 in 2023, indicating fewer hospitalizations require ICU care.
  • Death-to-hospitalization ratio has also decreased, remaining under 0.15 since January 2023, suggesting lower mortality risk among hospitalized individuals.
• Factors for Decline: The decline in severity indicators is likely due to a combination of factors including immunity, improved clinical care, and health system resilience, not necessarily due to reduced virulence of new variants.

Recommendations

• WHO urges Member States to maintain their established infrastructure for monitoring and responding to the pandemic.
• Countries are encouraged to report zero cases when no new admissions occur to ensure data accuracy.
• Continued surveillance, early warning, and public communication are critical to managing the disease effectively.

Conclusion

Despite the decrease in reported deaths, the global situation remains complex due to underreporting and changing testing practices. The dominance of JN.1 and the stability of BA.2.86 indicate ongoing viral evolution, while the decline in severity indicators suggests progress in managing the disease. However, vigilance and continued reporting are essential for accurate monitoring and response.