2012年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_The_impact_of_the_global_economic_crisis_on_Central_Asia_and_its_implications_for_the_EU_engagement_14页_494kb

Summary of the Impact of the Global Economic Crisis on Central Asia and Its Implications for EU Engagement

Core Content

The document explores how the global economic crisis has affected the domestic politics and geopolitical landscape of Central Asian countries, and what this means for the EU's engagement in the region. It highlights the interplay between economic conditions and political stability, emphasizing that the crisis has exposed weaknesses in governance and increased the challenges for political transformation.

Main Points

1. Economic Crisis and Domestic Politics in Central Asia

• All five Central Asian states (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) have authoritarian political systems, characterized by personalization of power, patron-client relationships, and systemic corruption.

• The crisis has worsened poverty and undermined the political order, making political transformation more urgent and difficult.

• Kazakhstan:

  • Previously experienced strong economic growth due to oil and metal exports, leading to a decrease in poverty from 40% in the late 1990s to 14% in 2007.
  • The crisis led to a credit crunch and declining export prices, affecting construction and mining sectors.
  • The government responded with economic stimulus and foreign investment, but public dissatisfaction is growing.
  • Political opposition is weak but gaining some traction due to the crisis, though the regime has mechanisms to control outcomes.

• Kyrgyzstan:

  • Once considered an "island of democracy," it has become a soft authoritarian state.
  • The crisis has severely impacted its economy, with a 20% drop in industrial production and a 40–50% decline in remittances.
  • The government has sought external financial support, including from Russia and the US, but lacks a comprehensive anti-crisis strategy.
  • Public protests are localized and not well-organized, while Islamist movements are gaining popularity.

• Tajikistan:

  • The poorest and most dependent on subsidies, it has faced a 50% drop in export revenues.
  • Remittances fell by 33%, leading to increased unemployment and social tensions.
  • The government has received financial assistance from the IMF, ADB, the US, and China, but these are insufficient to address systemic issues.
  • The population is increasingly frustrated and alienated, with internal and external security threats on the rise.

• Turkmenistan:

  • A highly isolated state with a strong personality cult under Niyazov, which has been partially dismantled under Berdymukhamedov.
  • The crisis has reduced gas exports to Russia, leading to price hikes and social discontent.
  • Despite these challenges, the regime still has enough resources to maintain stability, given its control over energy.

• Uzbekistan:

  • A hybrid economy with a gradualist approach, but still highly repressive.
  • The crisis has affected its export sectors and remittances, but the regime maintains control through repression and economic measures.
  • The government has increased salaries and negotiated migration agreements, but the long-term implications remain unclear.

2. Changing Geopolitical Balance in Central Asia

• Russia:

  • Views Central Asia as a strategic region for its security and energy interests.
  • Maintains a military-political alliance (CSTO) and seeks to control energy exports to Europe.
  • Seeks to maintain its influence and is concerned about losing its role as a dominant power in the region.

• China:

  • Focuses on Central Asia as the neighborhood of Xinjiang, concerned about separatist movements and instability.
  • Cooperates with Russia and other Central Asian states in countering extremism and terrorism.
  • Invests heavily in infrastructure and energy projects, especially in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

3. Implications for EU Engagement

• The EU's 2007 strategy for Central Asia prioritized security, stability, and economic cooperation.
• The crisis has made the EU's engagement more complex, as Central Asian states are increasingly influenced by Russia and China.
• The EU needs to consider the geopolitical dynamics and the shifting priorities of local regimes, which are more focused on survival and self-preservation than on political reform.
• Recommendations include strengthening dialogue, promoting transparency, and supporting sustainable development and governance reforms.

Key Information

• Economic Impact: The crisis has reduced export revenues, increased unemployment, and worsened living standards in all five countries.
• Political Impact: Authoritarian tendencies are increasing in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, while Kazakhstan faces internal challenges due to public dissatisfaction.
• Geopolitical Shifts: Russia and China are expanding their influence, while the EU's role is being challenged.
• EU Strategy: The EU's strategy must adapt to the changing dynamics and focus on long-term political and economic reforms.

Conclusion

The global economic crisis has exposed the fragility of Central Asian regimes and their economic structures. While the richest and poorest countries face the greatest challenges, the EU must navigate a complex geopolitical landscape to effectively engage with the region. The crisis has underscored the need for more nuanced and strategic approaches to support political and economic development in Central Asia.