20150814-USDA-USDA_Rice_Outlook_August_14,_2015_25页_235kb

报告摘要

2015/16 U.S. Rice Outlook Summary

Core Content

The Economic Research Service (ERS) has released the 2015/16 U.S. Rice Outlook, providing forecasts for production, imports, exports, and prices. The report highlights the impact of weather conditions, market dynamics, and global supply and demand on U.S. rice markets.

Main Points

U.S. Rice Production

2015/16 U.S. rice production is forecast at 205.0 million cwt, a 1% decrease from the previous forecast and 7% below the same period in 2014.
Production decline is observed in all reported states except Texas, which saw an increase of 6% due to a higher yield despite a lower planted area.
Average yield for 2015/16 is 7,472 pounds per acre, down 72 pounds from the previous forecast and 100 pounds from the year earlier.
Arkansas accounted for over half of the U.S. area decline, while California reported the largest percentage decline (11%), due to drought conditions.

U.S. Rice Imports

Imports for 2015/16 are forecast at a record 25.5 million cwt, up 0.5 million cwt from the previous forecast and 2% higher than the year earlier.
Long-grain imports are up 2% from the year earlier, while medium- and short-grain imports remain unchanged at 3.5 million cwt.
Beginning stocks are revised up 1.5 million cwt to 47.9 million cwt, contributing to near-stable total supply.

U.S. Rice Exports

Total exports are forecast at 107.0 million cwt, 3% below the previous forecast and 6% higher than the year earlier.
Long-grain exports are at 74.0 million cwt, 2% below the previous forecast and 4% above the year earlier.
Medium- and short-grain exports are at 33.0 million cwt, 10% above the year earlier.
Exports are expected to be more competitive due to lower prices from Asian suppliers, leading to a revised forecast.

U.S. Rice Prices

2015/16 season-average farm price (SAFP) for long-grain rice is $11.50–$12.50 per cwt, an increase of 60 cents from the previous forecast.
Medium- and short-grain SAFP remains $17.80–$18.80, with California at $20.50–$21.50 and the South at $14.30–$15.30.
Ending stocks are forecast at 42.4 million cwt, 11% below the year earlier, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 18.0%.

Global Outlook

Global Rice Production

Global production for 2015/16 is projected at 478.6 million tons (milled basis), the highest on record, despite a 1.7 million ton decrease from the previous month's forecast.
Production increases are expected in Bangladesh, India, and the Philippines, with Bangladesh and India accounting for most of the area expansion.
Production declines are forecast in Thailand, Argentina, Cuba, Iraq, South Korea, Uruguay, Venezuela, and the U.S., primarily due to drought, low yields, and adverse weather.
Sri Lanka and the European Union saw upward revisions in production forecasts due to better-than-expected crops.

Global Rice Trade

2016 global trade is forecast at 42.3 million tons, an increase of 0.2 million tons from the previous month.
India and Vietnam raised their export forecasts, while Argentina, the U.S., and Uruguay saw reductions.
2015 global trade is projected at 42.5 million tons, down 1.2 million tons from the previous month's forecast and 0.9 million tons below the year-earlier record.
Thailand's exports dropped by 2.0 million tons, significantly impacting global trade.

Global Rice Prices

Thailand's regular-milled white rice prices decreased 1–3% from the previous month due to a weaker baht, government stock sales, and lack of new export sales.
Vietnam's prices also declined slightly, with premium jasmine rice at $864 per ton, $16 higher than the previous week.
U.S. long-grain prices increased, with Southern long-grain milled rice at $491 per ton and rough rice at $280 per ton, $130 higher than Thailand's Grade B rice.

Key Information

California is the main producer of medium- and short-grain rice, but drought has led to declines in production.
Texas is the only state with increased production due to higher yields.
Global consumption is projected to be 487.8 million cwt, the highest on record, with China accounting for over half of the increase.
Global ending stocks are forecast to decline to 90.8 million tons, the lowest since 2007/08, due to increased consumption and lower production in several countries.
Thailand and Vietnam are major exporters, but price declines in both countries have made Vietnam a more competitive supplier.
U.S. long-grain rice is expected to be more expensive than Thailand's Grade B rice, with a price difference of $130 per ton.

Summary of Key Changes

Production in the U.S. and several other countries is lower due to drought and adverse weather.
Imports in the U.S. are at a record high, with long-grain imports being the main driver.
Exports are lower than previously forecast but higher than the year earlier.
Prices for U.S. long-grain rice are increasing, while Thailand and Vietnam prices are declining.
Global rice production is at a record level, but ending stocks are declining due to higher consumption.