2014年-世界发展银行全球_Short-_and_Long-Term_Impact_of_Violence_on_Education___The_Case_of_Timor_Leste_34页_425kb

Summary of "Short- and Long-Term Impact of Violence on Education: The Case of Timor Leste"

Core Content

This paper examines the impact of violent conflict on education in Timor Leste, focusing on the short-term effects of the 1999 violence on school attendance and the long-term effects on primary school completion. The study also compares the educational impact of the 1999 violence with that of earlier periods of high-intensity violence during the 25-year Indonesian occupation.

Main Points

1. Context of the Conflict and Education Sector

• Historical Background: Timor Leste was under Portuguese colonial rule until 1974, then forcibly annexed by Indonesia, leading to a 25-year occupation marked by violent conflict.
• Key Events: The Santa Cruz massacre in 1991 raised international awareness, leading to a UN-sponsored referendum in 1999, which resulted in 79% of the population voting for independence.
• Post-Referendum Violence: The aftermath of the 1999 referendum saw a wave of violence, including mass displacement and destruction of infrastructure, particularly in urban and western regions.
• Education Sector: The education system was severely damaged during the 1999 violence, with schools reopening only in October 2000. Despite reconstruction efforts, many children still lacked access to education in 2007.

2. Theoretical Framework

• Conflict and Human Capital: Violent conflict can lead to long-term reductions in human capital due to the disruption of education and other investments.
• Economic Trade-offs: Households may prioritize economic survival over education, especially during periods of intense violence, leading to reduced school attendance and completion among boys.
• Neoclassical Growth Models: These models suggest that temporary destruction of capital can be overcome, but the long-term effects of conflict may persist, particularly for vulnerable groups.

3. Methodology

• Data Sources: The study uses two nationally representative household surveys (TLSS 2001 and TLSS 2007) and the East Timor Human Rights Violations Database (CAVR) to identify violence exposure.
• Identification Strategy: The authors employ a difference-in-differences approach, comparing school attendance and completion rates of children affected by violence with those who were not.
• Sample Characteristics: The analysis focuses on children aged 7–12 in 1998–2001, with a particular emphasis on the 1999 violence and its aftermath.

4. Key Findings

• Short-Term Impact (2001): The 1999 violence had a mixed effect on school attendance. While girls showed rapid recovery, boys from displaced or home-destroyed households experienced a significant decline in attendance.
• Long-Term Impact (2007): The study finds that the 1999 violence led to a substantial long-term loss of human capital, particularly among boys. This is attributed to household trade-offs between education and economic survival.
• Comparative Analysis: The impact of the 1999 violence was more severe than earlier periods of violence, especially for boys. The 1970s and 1980s saw less intense violence, resulting in less pronounced effects on education.

5. Robustness and Limitations

• The fixed effects model was used to control for time-invariant individual characteristics.
• The study acknowledges that some children not of primary school age were included in the analysis, which could introduce spurious results.
• The findings are supported by robustness checks and are consistent across different specifications.

Key Information

• Sample Size: The 2001 survey included 1,800 households, while the 2007 survey included 4,477 households.
• Violence Exposure: 16% of children lived in displaced households, and 25% had their homes destroyed.
• Education Recovery: School enrollment rates increased from 65% to 74% between 1999 and 2001, largely due to the elimination of school fees and the reintroduction of Portuguese as the language of instruction.
• Gender Disparities: Girls generally had higher school attendance rates than boys, especially in the post-conflict period.
• Economic and Social Factors: Displaced households were better off than non-displaced ones, and households with damaged homes were more likely to be poor farmers in rural areas.

Conclusion

The paper highlights the long-term negative impact of violent conflict on education, particularly among boys in Timor Leste. It underscores the importance of understanding how violence affects different population groups and the role of economic survival in shaping educational outcomes. The study contributes to the broader literature on conflict and development by emphasizing the need for targeted policies to support education recovery in post-conflict settings.