2018全球生命科学展望（英文版）_41页-1mb

2018 Global Life Sciences Outlook Summary

Core Content

The 2018 Global Life Sciences Outlook by Deloitte outlines the evolving landscape of the life sciences industry, emphasizing the need for innovation, adaptability, and strategic partnerships to navigate the challenges and opportunities of the fourth industrial revolution. The report highlights the impact of emerging technologies, geopolitical changes, and shifting market dynamics on the sector.

Main Trends and Opportunities

Pharmaceutical Drugs

• Global prescription drug sales are projected to grow at a 6.5% CAGR through 2022, reaching $1.06 trillion.
• The patent cliff and pricing pressures are expected to temper this growth.
• Orphan drugs are expected to almost double in value by 2022, reaching $209 billion.
• Despite the tax law changes in the US that reduce orphan drug credits by 40%, the market remains a strategic priority due to seven-year exclusivity, faster FDA reviews, and reduced fees.

Biologics and Biosimilars

• Biologics are predicted to make up over 25% of the pharmaceutical market by 2020.
• Biosimilars are gaining traction due to affordability and access concerns, especially in emerging markets.
• The Asia-Pacific region, particularly China, is expected to be a major player in biosimilar development.

Generics

• Global generic drug sales are expected to reach 29.2% of total pharmaceutical sales in 2022, up from 28% in 2017.
• Generics make up over 80% of the global drug volume and are expected to grow further as more drugs lose patent protection.

Therapeutic Focus

• Oncology leads in sales, projected to account for 17.5% of prescription drug and OTC sales by 2022.
• The top 15 therapy categories will see growth in immunosuppressants, dermatologicals, and anti-coagulants.
• Personalized medicine is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.8%, reaching $2.4 trillion in 2022, outpacing the overall healthcare sector's growth.

MedTech

• Global medtech sales are forecast to grow at a 5.1% CAGR, reaching $521.9 billion by 2022.
• In vitro diagnostics will remain the largest segment, with sales reaching $70 billion.
• R&D spending in medtech is expected to increase to $33.5 billion by 2022, though as a percentage of sales, it will decline slightly.

Strategic Recommendations

Embrace

• Adopt exponential technologies like AI, automation, and 3D printing to drive innovation.
• Leverage real-world data and blockchain technology to improve data integrity and supply chain transparency.
• Invest in cognitive computing to optimize patient care and clinical trials.
• Prepare for the shift to cloud computing to handle the growing volume of data and improve analytical capabilities.

Build

• Develop an adaptable organization to handle the evolving nature of the industry.
• Foster a culture of courage to counter uncertainty and embrace innovation.
• Enhance data integrity and use data to maximize value across the product lifecycle.
• Prioritize patient trust and centricity throughout the care journey.
• Implement a smart, cross-functional regulatory approach to navigate evolving policies.

Grow

• Form strategic partnerships and explore new operating models to access external expertise and technologies.
• Leverage M&A to consolidate the industry and drive value, especially in non-traditional, technology-oriented areas.

M&A Investment Trends

• Deal value declined in 2017 due to global uncertainty, but 2018 is expected to see an increase in both volume and value.
• Big deals are likely to focus on core competencies and technology adjacencies.
• Becton Dickinson acquired CR Bard for $24.2 billion, while Gilead Sciences acquired Kite Pharma for $11.1 billion.
• Biopharma has three times the partnership activity as medtech.

Geopolitical Changes

• Tax reforms in the US and Brexit are reshaping the global business environment.
• The new US tax law reduces the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%, potentially making the US more competitive.
• Brexit impacts patents, data protection, clinical trials, and marketing authorizations, but the UK is working to maintain its position as a pharma hub.

Regulatory Highlights

US

• The FDA is developing a new framework for regenerative cell therapies and advancing digital health innovation.
• The Pre-Cert program is expected to expand in 2018, shifting approval focus to software and digital health developers.
• The 21st Century Cures Act is expected to see new implementation guidance for digital health.

EU

• Regulatory changes in the European Union will affect companies selling into the European Economic Area.
• The US medical device excise tax remains a challenge for medtech companies, and there is pent-up demand for policy changes to reduce it.

Talent and Workforce

• The demand for data, analytical, and AI talent is increasing, but supply is limited.
• Many life sciences companies are recruiting from other industries to gain new insights.
• Internal training of statisticians is also common.
• To retain talent, companies must offer upward mobility and integration across departments, not just in IT silos.

Conclusion

The life sciences industry is undergoing significant transformation due to technological advancements, geopolitical shifts, and changing market dynamics. Companies must embrace innovation, build adaptable organizations, and seek growth through partnerships to remain competitive. The future will be driven by personalized medicine, digital health technologies, and regulatory evolution, requiring a strategic, forward-thinking approach.