联合国贸易发展委员会-发展中国家的主权债务脆弱性（英）-2025_50页_1mb

Summary of Sovereign Debt Vulnerabilities in Developing Countries

Core Content

This report examines the external vulnerabilities of developing countries, focusing on their varying degrees of integration into the global financial system. It identifies three distinct groups of developing countries based on their financial integration profiles:

• Emerging Market Economies (EMEs): Upper-middle-income countries that integrated into international capital markets since the 1990s.
• Frontier Market Economies (FMEs): Low- or lower-middle-income countries that began accessing global markets post-2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC).
• Other Developing Economies (ODEs): Countries with low integration into international capital markets, reliant on external public financing and ODA.

The report introduces the sovereign debt life cycle, a conceptual framework that outlines five stages: Access to financial markets, Debt issuance, Debt management and tracking, Debt servicing, repayment and resilience, and Debt resolution or workout.

Main Points

1. External Creditor Composition

• ODEs: Primarily exposed to multilateral and bilateral creditors, with private creditors accounting for only 17% of PPG debt in 2022.
• FMEs: Private sector exposure has nearly doubled since 2010, reaching 32% of PPG debt in 2022.
• EMEs: Private creditors account for 67% of PPG debt, reflecting long-term integration into global capital markets.

2. Net Transfers on PPG Debt

• In 2022, developing countries faced a negative net transfer of US$25 billion on PPG debt due to the imbalance between official and private creditors.
• EMEs had the largest negative net transfer of US$32 billion.
• FMEs had a negative net transfer of US$2.2 billion.
• ODEs recorded a positive net transfer of US$10.2 billion.

3. Access to Financial Markets

• FMEs issue speculative-grade sovereign bonds and face higher spread volatility and borrowing costs compared to EMEs.
• The surge in bond issuance since 2010 led to a three-fold increase in FMEs' external PPG debt.
• PPG debt accounted for 36% of EMEs' total debt in 2023, 23.5% of ODEs' total debt, and 56% of FMEs' total debt.

4. Debt Servicing and Resilience

• FMEs experienced sharp increases in external interest payments in 2023, with a 42% rise compared to 112% for ODEs.
• The annual increase in debt service costs for FMEs was 15.5%, twice that of EMEs and ODEs.
• Debt service as a percentage of government revenues increased from 6.3% to 14.7% for FMEs, compared to 3% for EMEs and 7.3% for ODEs.

5. External Financial Sustainability

• Between 2017 and 2023, external debt service costs increased faster than exports and remittances for most FMEs and ODEs.
• EMEs showed a slower increase in debt service costs (2.4% annually) and higher export and remittance growth (6.4%).
• Public sector financial sustainability deteriorated for all three groups, with interest costs outpacing public sector revenues.
• FMEs and ODEs had higher public sector debt service costs than EMEs, with FMEs at 11.8% and ODEs at 16.3%.

6. Population Impact

• In 2023, over 4.1 billion people lived in countries with improving external financial sustainability.
• Over 2.1 billion people lived in countries with deteriorating sustainability.
• 5.6 billion people were in countries with deteriorating public sector financial sustainability, mainly due to India and China's large populations and deteriorating public sector sustainability.

7. Global Financial Safety Net (GFSN)

• The GFSN includes mechanisms like IMF conditional lines and regional financial arrangements (RFAs).
• EMEs have better access to Fed swap lines and regional funds, while FMEs and ODEs rely mostly on IMF conditional lines.
• Unlimited access to Fed swap lines is a key differentiator, as it provides systemic importance and liquidity support.

8. Key Vulnerabilities

• FMEs and ODEs face higher costs and greater vulnerability to external shocks due to limited access to the GFSN.
• Climate change and geographic and economic dependence increase external debt risks for Small Island Developing States (SIDS).
• Inequities in the international monetary and financial system (IMFS) have led to increased reliance on private capital flows and insufficient public financing.

9. Policy Recommendations

• The report proposes transformative policies based on the sovereign debt life cycle.
• These include improving access to the GFSN, reducing debt service costs, and enhancing debt sustainability frameworks.
• A multidimensional vulnerability index (MVI) is suggested to guide concessional lending and Official Development Assistance (ODA), incorporating financial and debt sustainability indicators.

Key Information

• EMEs have the most financial integration and lower debt service costs.
• FMEs show increased exposure to private creditors, higher debt service costs, and greater vulnerability to external shocks.
• ODEs rely heavily on public financing and ODA, with limited access to the GFSN and private capital.
• FMEs and ODEs face greater challenges in sustaining external and public sector finances, especially in the context of climate change and development goals.
• The IMFS is disconnected from development priorities, exacerbating inequities and financial vulnerabilities for developing countries.

Conclusion

The report highlights a deterioration in external and public sector financial sustainability for most developing countries, particularly FMEs and ODEs, due to increasing debt service costs and limited access to the GFSN. It calls for a more inclusive and equitable financial system and the adoption of a multidimensional vulnerability index to guide development financing and debt sustainability.