国家经济和社会研究所-月度工资追踪-高工资增长，低生产率增长：我们正在经历工资滞胀吗？（英）-2023.5-7页_302kb

NIESR Monthly Wage Tracker Summary (May 2023)

Overview

• Wage Growth: Average weekly earnings excluding bonuses rose by 6.7% in Q1 2023, aligning with prior forecasts. Including bonuses, growth was 5.8%. The Bank of England anticipates this settling at 5% by Q4 2023 but expressed concerns over the elevated inflation expectations.
• Sectoral Disparity: The gap in regular pay growth between private (7.0%) and public (5.6%) sectors narrowed for the sixth consecutive month, though private sector growth is still projected to outpace the public in Q2 2023. Public sector pay rose to 5.6%, below its peak in 2001.
• Productivity: UK productivity growth was at its weakest since 2013, with output per hour falling by 0.6% in Q1 2023. This is linked to a need for increased public and private investment, especially given constrained labor supply.
• Labor Market: Employment increased slightly, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. The economic inactivity rate dropped but among students; the key age group (50–64) said to be targeted by the Chancellor saw little improvement.
• Vacancies and Hiring: Vacancies fell but remain 22% above pre-pandemic levels. Hiring patterns show a trend towards permanents, but at a slower pace; insights from Indeed suggest the labor market impact persists despite quarterly declines.
• Budget and Inflation: High inflation expectations fuel wage growth. Considering ongoing industrial action and potential strikes, wage growth remains a key concern.

Key Issues

• Stagflation Risk: Rising wages coupled with low productivity growth and subdued economic expansion risk leading to wage inflation without corresponding economic output increases.
• Active Labor Force: The targeted group for employment support remains stagnant, and long-term sickness recorded a record high in inactive numbers.

The key takeaway points to further action needed in terms of investment and monitoring wage growth due to the threat it poses to sustainable economic growth and public finances.