世界银行-尼日利亚发展更新_2025年5月_为包容性增长创造动力（英）-2025.5_66页_3mb

Nigeria's economy shows signs of stabilization after key reforms, with GDP growth moderate at 3.4% in 2024, driven mainly by services (particularly finance and ICT) and a partial recovery in oil production. Growth is expected to reach 3.7% in 2025.

Key Economic Developments & Outlook:

• Economic Growth: Increased moderately, though uneven, with services leading the expansion. Oil sector output improved significantly.
• Inflation: Remains high and difficult to gauge early in 2025 due to Consumer Price Index (CPI) rebasing, but policies are maintained tight to contain expectations.
• Fiscal Position: Improved due to higher revenues from petrol subsidy removal and better tax collection, shrinking the deficit to 3.0% of GDP in 2024.
• External Position: Strengthened via FX reforms, leading to a larger current account surplus despite moderating oil prices.
• Financial Sector: Remains shallow, with limited market capitalization, constrained by high Cash Reserve Requirements (CRR) and underdeveloped capital markets. NPLs are low, indicating healthier institutions.
• Economic Outlook: Cautiously positive, suggesting averages around 3.6% GDP growth for 2025-2027. Risks are prevalent, primarily political and external.

Inclusive Growth Agenda:

• Public Sector: Focuses on enhancing revenue collection, tax transparency, reducing subsidies (like PMS), and infrastructure spending.
• Private Sector Development: Aims to ease entry for businesses (lift FDI restrictions), enhance competition, and improve access to finance, especially for MSMEs.
• Priority Sectors: Includes modernizing agriculture, boosting digital services, improving electricity access via solar power (mini-grid permits increased), and trade policy reforms to lower tariffs and remove bans.
• Implementation Challenges: Requires sustained reforms and political will to avoid setbacks, balancing fiscal discipline with inclusive growth goals.

Nigeria's success hinges on integrating these reforms into an action plan, leveraging gains from ongoing policies while addressing governance weaknesses and coordinating across public and private sectors.