2026年全球航空可持续发展展望白皮书_71页_13mb

Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2026 Summary

Core Content

The Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2026 is a comprehensive report that evaluates the progress and challenges in achieving net-zero carbon emissions in the aviation sector. It highlights the interplay between technological innovation, policy development, economic factors, and broader industry trends that are shaping the future of sustainable aviation.

Main Viewpoints

1. Ambitious Pragmatism

The aviation industry is entering 2026 with strong net-zero ambitions, but the path to achieving these goals requires a pragmatic and coordinated approach. The report emphasizes the need for stable policies, resilient supply chains, and practical solutions that align with market realities.

• Overall Progress in 2025: The sector maintained its commitment to net-zero, with progress generally in line with expectations, though uneven.

• Expectations for 2026: About half of the surveyed executives expressed optimism about meaningful progress, while one-third were pessimistic.

• Drivers of Optimism:

  • Continuity in Policy and Collaboration: ICAO has ensured consistent climate ambitions and net-zero goals across the sector.
  • Energy Security: Increasing focus on energy security is driving the development of local and regional SAF markets.
  • Economic Growth: Rising passenger and cargo volumes, especially in 2025, are reinforcing the importance of aviation.
  • Technological Innovation: Confidence in new SAF pathways, including carbon removals, waste circularity, and AI-driven emissions analysis, is growing.

• Challenges Ahead:

  • Policy Consistency: Concerns about inconsistent global support for sustainability initiatives.
  • Economic Uncertainty: Global economic instability and geopolitical tensions are affecting investment and long-term commitments.
  • Technology Pathways: The choice of decarbonization technologies remains a critical decision point, with e-SAF being more costly than alternatives like HEFA.

• Industry Priorities and Trends for 2026:

  • Alignment of SAF Mandates: Greater regional alignment of SAF mandates and sustainability standards is needed.
  • Global vs. Local Production: Balancing affordability through global SAF trading with security via local production is a key trade-off.
  • Hybrid Powertrains: Hybrid powertrains are becoming more cost-effective and are gaining traction over hydrogen-powered aircraft.
  • Digitalization and AI: Leveraging AI and data to improve efficiency and sustainability is a growing priority.

Key Information

2. Technology Trends

• SAF Availability and Scalability: SAF remains central to decarbonization, but scalability is hindered by uncertain long-term offtake and policy stability.
• Infrastructure Readiness: Infrastructure readiness for SAF along the supply chain is a critical enabler for its widespread adoption.
• Clean Energy and Hydrogen: Airports and flight operations are exploring hydrogen as a clean energy source, though its application is still in early stages.
• Aircraft Powertrains: Hybrid and eVTOL technologies are emerging as viable options for reducing emissions.
• AI and Data: AI is being used to enhance operational efficiency and optimize emissions across the value chain.

3. Policy and Geopolitical Trends

• Energy Security: Increasing emphasis on energy security is expected to drive the development of fossil-free fuels.
• SAF Policy: Policy momentum has increased, with new mandates and incentives being introduced in various regions.
• Carbon Pricing: Carbon pricing mechanisms are being developed and refined, with CORSIA playing a key role in international alignment.
• Geopolitical Impact: Trade tensions, tariffs, and export controls are affecting aviation supply chains and commodity flows.
• Climate Resilience: Climate resilience of airport infrastructure is a growing priority, especially in light of extreme weather events.
• Multilateralism: Despite global challenges, multilateral cooperation in aviation remains strong, particularly through ICAO.

4. Economic Trends

• Passenger and Cargo Growth: Growth in air travel and cargo is uneven across regions, with some areas seeing strong expansion.
• Aircraft Manufacturing Bottlenecks: Manufacturing constraints are affecting the availability of new aircraft and engines.
• SAF Affordability: SAF remains expensive, and faster scale-up is needed to meet growing demand.
• SAF Partnerships: Voluntary demand and partnerships are playing a key role in SAF adoption.
• Fuel Refining and Oil Markets: Fuel refining activity and oil market dynamics have significant implications for the aviation sector.

5. Wider Industry Trends

• Climate Resilience: Airport infrastructure must be made more resilient to climate impacts.
• Workforce Instability: Workforce challenges continue to affect the sector.
• Cybersecurity and Digital Failures: Cyber-attacks and digital system failures are causing operational disruptions.
• Energy System Outages: Risks to grid reliability and energy supply chains are increasing.

Conclusion

The Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2026 underscores that while the aviation industry is on a clear path towards net-zero, the journey requires pragmatic strategies, collaboration, and regulatory stability. The report calls for greater alignment of policies, investment in sustainable technologies, and coordinated action across all stakeholders to ensure the sector remains on track for a sustainable future.

Appendices and Methodology

• Appendix 1: Provides a longer-term view on SAF demand, developed in collaboration with HSBC.
• Appendix 2: Details the methodology used in the main analysis, including survey data and stakeholder input.
• Contributors and Acknowledgements: Recognizes the contributions of various organizations and individuals to the report.

Disclaimer

This document is published by the World Economic Forum and reflects the views of its contributors and partners, not necessarily those of the Forum itself. It is intended to serve as a reference for decision-makers and stakeholders in the aviation sector.