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Morgan Stanley AlphaWise US Consumer Pulse Survey (Wave 61) Summary

Date: January 27, 2025

Key Findings:

1. Top Concern for 2025:

   • Inflation: 63% of U.S. consumers (similar to previous waves) are worried about rising prices in 2025, despite cooling inflation.
   • Second Concern: Political environment in the U.S. (43%, down from 50% two months ago, following the election).
   • Partial attribution: Uncertainty over tariffs (52% very/slightly concerned).
   • Political Divide: Liberals (50% very concerned about tariffs) express higher concern compared to Conservatives (15%).

2. Moderate Economic Outlook:

   • Consumers expect the economy to get better in the next six months (44%), slightly down from last month (46%) but higher than 28% same time last year.
   • Expectations for household finances also ticked down (45% better, 22% worse).

3. Spending Plans:

   • Short-term outlook: Net spending expectation slightly down (+10% vs. +23%, up from +5% last year). Post-holiday dip expected, particularly for toys (-18%) and apparel (-6%).
   • Longer-term outlook: Stable for most categories, with strong plans for essential goods like groceries and gas. Travel intentions are positive (+60% plan to travel next six months, marginally better than last year).

4. Divergent Sentiment by Political Affiliation:

   • Liberal: Higher concern about economy (-46% net sentiment vs. -34% last month) and tariffs. Less optimistic about the future.
   • Conservative: More optimistic about the economy (+54% net sentiment vs. +57% last wave) and less concerned about tariffs. More positive outlook overall compared to pre-election.

5. Income Differences:

   • Inflation as top concern across income groups.
   • Low-income consumers more worried about rent/mortgage inability and debt repayment.
   • High-income consumers show higher concern about investments, politics, and geopolitics. Higher average savings buffer (~8 months).