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Summary of Lithium-Ion Battery Supply Chain Diversification, Repurposing, Recycling, and Job Creation Opportunities in Viet Nam

Core Content

This report explores the opportunities for lithium-ion battery (LiB) supply chain diversification, repurposing, recycling, and job creation in Viet Nam. It provides an in-depth analysis of the global and regional battery industry, identifies key challenges and risks, and outlines strategic directions for Viet Nam to enhance its position in the global battery value chain.

Main Points

1. Global Battery Demand and Supply Landscape

• xEV Market Growth: Electric vehicles (xEVs) are expected to account for 89% of global light vehicle (LV) sales by 2040, with a CAGR of 19% in 2024–2030.
• LiB Demand: Global demand for lithium-ion batteries is projected to exceed 4.4 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2040, with the People's Republic of China (PRC) expected to dominate, accounting for over 40% of global LiB and sodium-ion battery demand by 2030.
• Cathode and Anode Materials: Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) and Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC) are expected to dominate cathode chemistries, while silicon-based anodes will likely become standard.
• Supply Chain Risks: Despite strong demand, production capacity in the PRC and EU is projected to exceed demand by 2030, leading to regional surpluses. Lithium and nickel will have minimal surpluses, increasing vulnerability to supply chain disruptions.
• Global Supply Chain Concentration: The PRC controls much of the global supply chain through cross-border ownership. Price volatility, especially for lithium, remains a concern, necessitating robust risk management strategies.

2. Viet Nam’s Battery Industry

• BEV Market Growth: The battery electric vehicle (BEV) market in Viet Nam is expected to grow rapidly, with BEV penetration reaching 26% by 2030 and a CAGR of 29% from 2022–2030.
• Market Leaders: VinFast is expected to dominate the BEV market, contributing about 45% of production, while multinational OEMs are likely to enter the market from 2024 onwards.
• ESS Demand: Expansion of renewable energy projects is driving strong demand for energy storage systems (ESSs), especially in highland and southeast regions of Viet Nam.
• Supply Strategy: Viet Nam can source lithium from Australia, leverage domestic nickel and phosphate reserves, and import other materials from the PRC.
• Export Potential: Viet Nam has the potential to become a regional exporter of LFP batteries to Asia-Pacific and North America, supported by government incentives such as BEV production targets, local manufacturing support, and corporate income tax exemptions.

3. Battery Repurposing and Recycling

• Importance: Battery repurposing and recycling are critical for sustainable resource use, environmental protection, and economic value creation.
• Regulatory Landscape: The PRC and EU have more developed battery recycling regulations, while the US lags behind, highlighting global policy disparities.
• EoL Pathways: Batteries can be reused, repurposed, or recycled. As a battery’s state of health declines, its highest value shifts from reuse to repurposing, and finally to recycling.
• Recycling Technologies: Hydrometallurgy offers financial and environmental benefits over pyrometallurgy, though both are relevant. Recyclable LiB materials are expected to exceed 100 GWh in North America and Europe by 2030, with up to 80% of cathode active material recoverable.
• SLB Potential: Second-life batteries (SLBs) can be repurposed for ESSs and low-speed electric mobility, but their total cost of ownership is 24% higher than new batteries over 15 years, limiting appeal.
• Viet Nam’s Recycling Outlook: The recycling industry is expected to grow significantly, reaching 34 kta by 2036, compared to 3 kta from production scrap. With targeted efforts, Viet Nam could position itself as a regional battery recycling hub.

4. Job Creation and Upskilling Opportunities

• Job Creation Potential: LiB-related investments in Viet Nam currently total about $7 billion, supporting around 65,000 jobs. Additional investments of $3 billion–$9 billion could generate 22,000–65,000 new jobs.
• Key Job Segments:
  • Scientific Research
  • Design and Development
  • Manufacturing
  • Maintenance and Services
  • Infrastructure Development
• Skills Required: The industry demands highly skilled workers in engineering, research, business analysis, and data science, along with strong soft skills, digital literacy, and English proficiency.
• Workforce Assessment: Viet Nam’s workforce has foundational skills but requires sustained collaboration among industry players, academia, and the government to build critical capabilities and align education programs with industry needs.
• Diversity and Inclusion: Increasing workforce diversity is essential to broaden the talent pool and reduce labor shortages in this fast-growing sector.

Key Information

• Strategic Objectives:
  • Diversify LiB supply chains.
  • Promote environmentally responsible repurposing and recycling.
  • Map job creation opportunities for women, people with disabilities, and vulnerable groups.
• Investment Scenarios:
  • Scenario 1 (Business-as-Is): Current investments and job creation.
  • Scenario 2 (Accelerated Growth): Increased investment leading to more job creation.
  • Scenario 3 (Regional Leader): Viet Nam as a regional leader in LiB manufacturing and recycling.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Establish clear BEV production targets.
  • Support local manufacturing through incentives.
  • Promote corporate income tax exemptions for domestic battery production.
  • Develop a recycling ecosystem and innovation policies.
  • Enhance education and training to align with industry needs.
• Challenges:
  • Supply chain concentration in the PRC.
  • Price volatility in key raw materials.
  • Limited recycling infrastructure in Viet Nam.
  • Technical constraints in repurposing and recycling.
  • Need for upskilling and workforce diversity.

Conclusion

Viet Nam has significant potential to diversify its lithium-ion battery supply chain, develop a robust recycling industry, and create substantial job opportunities. Strategic investments, supportive policies, and collaboration between public and private sectors are crucial for leveraging this potential. The country is well-positioned to become a regional hub for battery manufacturing and recycling, especially with its domestic nickel and phosphate reserves, strategic trade agreements, and growing renewable energy sector.