2010-09-22-皮尤-Independents_Oppose_Party_in_Power...Again_93页_648kb

Summary of Pew Research Report (September 2010): Independent Voters in the 2010 Midterm Elections

Independents constituted a significant portion of registered voters (37%), with high levels of political engagement; however, their propensity to vote had grown compared to 2006. For the 2010 midterms, independent registered voters showed a distinct shift from Democrats toward Republicans, resulting in a near 60-point gap among likely voters (49% favoring Republican candidates vs. 36% favoring Democrats).

Several factors influenced independent voting:

• Political Discontent: Disapproval of President Obama's job performance (48% among independents) and actions was strongly linked to support for Republican candidates.
• Economic Dissatisfaction: 51% rated economic conditions poorly, and many (49%) attributed the poor economy to Obama's policies.
• Comparative Evaluations: Independents saw both parties negatively, but distr Trusted neither party (53%), making non-partisanship attractive.
• Issue-Based Voting: Independents preferred Republicans on foreign policy and economic issues but leaned toward Democrats on social issues.
• Demographic Changes: Independents were generally more conservative than Democrats, supporting smaller government, national security, and traditional social views.

Key demographic differences were observed:

• Shadow Republicans were well-educated and affluent but lukewarm toward Republican policies.
• Disaffecteds were financially stressed, older white men critical of politics and government.
• Shadow Democrats were liberal and supportive of government action.

The Republican enthusiasm gap among likely voters contributing to a larger advantage among independent voters.