2025-05-27-Bernstein-养乐多本社有限公司（2267）_养乐多-迎来转机_若拐点将至_是时候关注了_24页_1mb

Price Target Downgrade
Bernstein Research lowered Yakult Honsha Co Ltd's price target from ¥4,800 to ¥4,400 JPY due to updated financial models reflecting a weak fourth-quarter performance, cautious outlook on Y1000 Light growth momentum, and FX headwinds. The Outperform rating remains in place, with ¥4,400 as the new PT representing a 1.6x NTM P/E multiple, indicating continued undervaluation from historical averages.

Investment Implications:
• Maintain Outperform rating
• Cut FY3/26 Core OP estimate by 8%, EPS by 11%
• Stock trades 1.1x stdev below 5-year average P/E and 0.9x stdev below Asia ex-Japan dividends yield
• Catalysts include Y1000 repeat purchase growth (target ~8% for May), Asian flavor variant launches (China, Indonesia), and potential plant closures

Inflection Points:
• Japan: Y1000 Light launch boosted April volumes (+3.4%), with Convenience Store sales up ~25% month-on-month
• Asia: China (volume growth since Q1 2025, margins expanding 100bps in 1Q)
• Indonesia: Launched Mango variant June 2025
• Catalysts for growth: Plant closures in China (potential savings ~JPY0.8bn in FY3/26), operational leverage in Japan

Model Updates:
• Cut FY3/26 Core OP estimate following weak Q4 FY3/25 report
• Price target reduced to ¥4,400 from ¥4,800
• The NTM P/E stands at 18.2x vs 5-year average of 21.3x

Valuation Analysis:
• Currently trading at ~16.9x forward P/E (FY26E)
• Net debt/EBITDA ratio 2.39x, EV/EBIT of 14.9x
• EBIT projected to grow 9.3% (FY25A-FYE)
• Asia division margins expected to expand 150bps for FY3/26 due to cost savings from plant closures