IMF国际货币组织全球-Russian-Federation_Selected-Issues_13页_572kb

Summary of the Russian Federation Fiscal Transparency Report (August 2019)

Core Content

This report, prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as background documentation for periodic consultations with Russia, evaluates the country's fiscal transparency practices and their implications for government efficiency and corruption reduction. The analysis is based on data up to June 27, 2019, and aligns with the IMF's 2018 Framework for Enhanced IMF Engagement in Governance, which emphasizes systematic and candid engagement with member countries on fiscal transparency.

Main Viewpoints

• Fiscal transparency is crucial for enhancing government efficiency, reducing corruption risks, and improving investor confidence.
• The IMF's Fiscal Transparency Code outlines international best practices in this area, which Russia has partially adopted.
• There is strong cross-country evidence from European countries that fiscal transparency is correlated with better economic outcomes, including lower financing costs, more efficient public investment, and improved corruption perceptions.
• Russia has made significant progress in fiscal transparency over the past five years, particularly in fiscal risk analysis and reporting, placing it above the average for emerging Europe and near advanced European countries in some areas.

Key Information

Fiscal Transparency and Corruption

• A higher Open Budget Index (OBI) is associated with improved control of corruption, even after controlling for other factors such as income, rule of law, and political stability.
• The Control of Corruption Index (from the Worldwide Governance Indicators) shows a positive correlation with fiscal transparency.
• The report notes that 37% of Russians view lack of transparency and accountability in public expenditure as one of the top three causes of corruption, similar to the European Union average.

Fiscal Transparency and Economic Outcomes

• Better fiscal transparency is linked to lower credit default swap (CDS) spreads, which implies lower borrowing costs for the government.
• It is also associated with higher public investment efficiency, as measured by the transformation of public investment into infrastructure and services.
• Improved fiscal transparency is correlated with higher revenue efficiency, particularly in tax collection and value-added tax (VAT) performance.

Methodology and Findings

• The report uses panel regression analysis to assess the impact of fiscal transparency on corruption control, covering 102 countries over six years (2006–2017).
• The results show that fiscal transparency is positively correlated with control of corruption, voice and accountability, political stability, and rule of law.
• It is negatively correlated with being a commodity exporter, possibly due to the increased opportunities for corruption in resource-rich economies.
• The correlation is robust across different estimation methods and is not significantly affected by omitted variables or reverse causality.

Russia's Performance

• In 2014, Russia ranked above the average of emerging Europe and close to advanced European countries in fiscal transparency.
• In 2019, Russia's fiscal transparency practices improved, especially in fiscal risk analysis, with the publication of long-term fiscal scenarios and a comprehensive Fiscal Risks Report.
• However, Russia's practices in fiscal reporting, budgeting, and risk management still fall short of international best practices in several areas.

Areas for Improvement

• State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs): Over 30,000 SOEs are not included in consolidated fiscal reporting and many do not publish audited financial statements. A summary document on SOE performance and mandatory publication of audited financial statements is recommended.
• Statistical Independence: Rosstat, the national statistics agency, should be granted greater institutional independence to ensure the credibility of fiscal data.
• Public Private Partnerships (PPPs): There is little progress in tracking the nearly 2,500 PPP projects, which account for about 2.2% of GDP in 2017.
• Extrabudgetary Expenditure: The National Welfare Fund (NWF) has historically been used for extrabudgetary spending, which undermines fiscal discipline.
• Classified Expenditure: The share of the federal budget classified for national security has increased from 10% in 2010 to 17% in 2018, limiting transparency.
• Fiscal Forecasting: The credibility of fiscal forecasts could be enhanced through greater independent scrutiny and longer-term planning (up to 50 years).

Policy Recommendations

• Expand fiscal statistics to include sub-soil assets, public-private partnerships, and pension liabilities.
• Publish regular reports on the SOE sector and extend fiscal forecasts to a 50-year horizon.
• Improve budget openness by discontinuing extrabudgetary spending and reducing classified expenditure.
• Strengthen accountability and public participation in the budget process, such as through the publication of a Citizen's Budget and participatory budgeting pilots.

Conclusion

While Russia has made notable progress in fiscal transparency, further reforms are needed to align with international standards and to reduce corruption vulnerabilities. The report underscores the importance of transparency in promoting government efficiency, enhancing public trust, and attracting foreign investment. Continued efforts in institutional independence, comprehensive reporting, and long-term fiscal planning are essential for sustained improvement.