20221228-瑞士信贷集团-SHIMAMURA-Revising_forecasts_Making_concerted_efforts_to_ratchet_up_earnings_11页_488kb
报告摘要
SHIMAMURA Summary
Core Content and Overview
SHIMAMURA is a Japanese retail company that operates fashion stores, selling clothing for men, women, children, and other furnishing goods, primarily in suburban areas. The company has recently revised its financial forecasts based on its 3Q results. The updated forecasts show a slight increase in operating profit estimates, with the target price raised to ¥15,000 from ¥14,800, suggesting a potential return of 19.2%. The company maintains a Neutral rating due to its performance relative to the broader market.
Key Financial Forecasts
- FY2/23E Operating Profit (OP): ¥54.4bn (+10% YoY, previous estimate: ¥53.7bn; guidance: ¥52.1bn; IBES consensus: ¥53.6bn)
- FY2/24E OP: ¥53.6bn (previous estimate: ¥51.3bn; consensus: ¥54.3bn)
- FY2/25E OP: ¥51.0bn (previous estimate: ¥53.6bn; consensus: ¥54.3bn)
Financial and Valuation Metrics
| Metric | FY2/22A | FY2/23E | FY2/24E | FY2/25E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales (¥ bn) | 583.6 | 616.2 | 623.3 | 626.3 |
| Operating Profit (¥ bn) | 49.4 | 54.4 | 53.6 | 51.0 |
| Recurring Profit (¥ bn) | 50.6 | 55.8 | 55.0 | 52.4 |
| Net Income (¥ bn) | 35.4 | 38.8 | 37.7 | 35.5 |
| EPS (¥) | 964.0 | 1,055.8 | 1,025.9 | 966.0 |
| IBES Consensus EPS (¥) | n.a. | 1,037.7 | 1,039.9 | 1,071.0 |
| EPS Growth (%) | 35.4 | 9.5 | -2.8 | -5.8 |
| P/E (x) | 10.4 | 11.9 | 12.3 | 13.0 |
| Dividend Yield (%) | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 3.3 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.6 |
| P/B (x) | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| ROE (%) | 8.9 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 7.4 |
| Net Debt/Equity (%) | Net Cash | Net Cash | Net Cash | Net Cash |
Share Price Performance
- Price on 27 Dec 2022: ¥12,580
- 1M Return: 0.7%
- 3M Return: 1.8%
- 12M Return: 37.8%
- Relative to TOPIX: 6.1% (1M), -1.2% (3M), 41.2% (12M)
Investment Overview
- In FY2/17, OP reached a record high of ¥48.8bn with an OPM of 8.6%.
- OP fell over three years (FY2/18-20) due to weak sales at the Shimamura format, reaching ¥23.0bn in FY2/20 with an OPM of 4.4%.
- Management efforts to improve product appeal led to a recovery, with expectations of a record OP in FY2/22 and a second consecutive year of record profits in FY2/23, with OPM surpassing the FY2/17 level to 8.8%.
- The company aims to build a solid earnings base through improved product marketability, sales promotions, and IT logistics, despite potential sales growth challenges in the medium term.
Valuation and Risks
- Target Price: ¥15,000, based on a residual income model.
- Upside Risks: Stronger-than-expected sales recovery due to changing fashion trends, enhanced shareholder returns from a robust balance sheet.
- Downside Risks: Weak sales due to online and other channel competition, customer churn from store location issues, and M&A-related profit deterioration.
Scenario Analysis
- Blue Sky Scenario (FY2/27): Operating margin of 8.0%, target price of ¥16,200.
- Grey Sky Scenario (FY2/27): Operating margin of 5.0%, target price of ¥10,600.
Key Ratios and Performance
| Ratio | FY2/22A | FY2/23E | FY2/24E | FY2/25E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales Growth (%) | 7.6 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| Operating Profit Growth (%) | 30.0 | 10.1 | -1.5 | -4.9 |
| EPS Growth (%) | 35.4 | 9.5 | -2.8 | -5.8 |
| Gross Margin (%) | 34.1 | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.2 |
| EBITDA Margin (%) | 9.5 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 9.1 |
| OP Margin (%) | 8.5 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 8.1 |
| ROE (%) | 8.9 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 7.4 |
| Net Profit Margin (%) | 6.1 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 5.7 |
| Sales/Assets | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Assets/Equity | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Equity Ratio (%) | 86.6 | 87.1 | 87.7 | 88.2 |
| Dividend Payout Ratio (%) | 24.9 | 24.6 | 27.3 | 29.0 |
| FCF Yield (%) | 8.3 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 6.8 |
Store and Sales Data
| Store Format | FY2/22 | FY2/23E | FY2/24E | FY2/25E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shimamura | 1,423 | 1,418 | 1,418 | 1,418 |
| Chambre | 96 | 113 | 123 | 123 |
| Birthday | 240 | 313 | 323 | 323 |
| Divalo | 11 | 16 | 21 | 23 |
| Avail | 50,377 | 60,800 | 59,600 | 58,700 |
| Shimamura Taiwan | 42 | 41 | 41 | 41 |
| Shimamura Shanghai | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Operating Profit Trends
- FY2/22A Operating Profit: ¥49.4bn
- FY2/23E Operating Profit: ¥54.4bn
- FY2/24E Operating Profit: ¥53.6bn
- FY2/25E Operating Profit: ¥51.0bn
Conclusion
SHIMAMURA has shown a recovery in its financial performance, with management efforts leading to improved operating margins and profits. While there are concerns about macroeconomic factors and competition, the company's initiatives in product development and logistics are expected to support its earnings. The updated forecasts and target price reflect the analyst's confidence in the company's ability to sustain growth, although caution is advised due to potential risks such as weak sales and customer churn.
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